I’ll go over it again

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If there is anything that can lead to rain, this summer’s weather pattern will find a way to make it rain and this is another minus mark for many forecasters including myself for some areas. The main reason was this disturbance was stronger than expected and took advantage of the low level jet at night. For those of you SW of Lexington I’m talking about those overnight thunderstorms that dumped some 1-3 inches locally in SEbowling green and another max in precip over Ohio county.

here is a precip graph last night for Ohio county, this turned out to be a hvy rain threat for some.

 

if a bust on the forecast isn’t bad enough, I’m noticing that the high pressure on the models that is going to be over the great lakes looks a little weaker possibly allowing for a higher likelyhood of  undercutting disturbances and outflow boundries  to be persistant from the plains and over most of the south. For us this would mean an introduction of rain and storm chances to the late weekend forecast.

1. However the high pressure should be strong enough for Friday and Saturday to keep any more of these away, i’m still wary of last night and will raise chances to 20% as the threat of a pop up can’t be ruled out from the leftovers of wednesday’s night  boundries. i’m sticking with the 80/60 split for general temps.

2. By sunday we get into return flow of that great lakes high which increases our rain chances to 50% by labor day, the cmc is most agressive with those storm chances by sunday but the majority of the models hold the bulk of the rain threat till labor day. As usual there will be a hvy rain threat from any slow movers. I can hear the boos from my computer already.

18z gfs on labor day afternoon

entire cmc run

3. we shouldn’t forget about Erika, however, we’ll put any further discussion on hold as it’s very weak now.

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