cfs update and labor day forecast

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off to the link on the side you can see the cfs forecast the weather for every day in the winter updated about three times a week. i will go through one of these runs tonight  in an overview format for you all out there, also i’ll tally up the snowfall as well using the 540 pink line as a rough guide, remember this is just for fun and these runs of the cfs can change wildly from week to week.

– the cfs shows a warm start to DEC followed by a nail biter for mid month

the mix would change to snow on the back end of this southern system as the cold isn’t that dense yet in the US

the cfs has it cold and dry till christmas with some flurries possible christmas day

the pattern turns warmer and wetter ending 2009 followed by new years eve cold.

a cold rain to start 2010

the first part of jan is warm and dry with clippers well to our north, we’re half way through with a lot of where’s the snow comments

the nao turns negative by mid month and finally a system with a favorable track

the storm track is really looking good now by the 16th of jan, the potential for big storms is there 

the rest of the month is rather cold with snow chances from clippers and southern systems as well( common with el nino)

the first half of feb is rather seaonabile but dry then the rest of the winter is very mild with close to normal precip. a note here is that is the opposite of the euro now.

if we were to take this run as the gospel for the winter we would have average snow ( remember i did not include most of the maps) below norm temps and dryer than normal conditions.

remember this was just for fun!!

now onto our labor day forecast

1. we’ll have two fronts one will be a warm front east of the heat ridge over the plains which will lead to a semi ring of fire of storms there. the other will still have scattered showers along it across the south through the weekend.

2. for us this means a continued slight shower chance for Thursday and Friday with moderating temps as the trough over the east continues to slowly lift out with lows near 60 and highs near 80.

3. this is going to be a great labor day weekend region wide with a dry and seasonable weather pattern as another strong high builds in across the great lakes. I’ll continue to go with the  low 60/80’s rule as well for temps. remember fall is a typical dry season around here.

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One Response to “cfs update and labor day forecast”

  1. mitchg Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    715 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

    KYC061-085-213-227-031500-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0065.090903T1115Z-090903T1500Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    GRAYSON KY-EDMONSON KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
    615 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN…
    EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SIMPSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

    * AT 603 AM CDT…A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
    WAS TRAINING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES. 1 TO 3 INCHES
    OF RAIN HAD ALREADY FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
    HEAVIEST RAIN JUST SOUTH…SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN IN WARREN
    COUNTY.

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
    WARNED AREA.

    scattered slow moving storms over southern ky today thanks to a little stronger disturbance passing through than what we’ve had the last few days.

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