midweek hvy rain threat

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the rements of claudette are continuing to move north into the tenn valley or now mainly there outlow boundries. also our front is now along the ohio river. this has already set the stage for scattered hvy thunderstorms from the bowling green to lexington metros and then toward ashland a couple of times on monday. outflow boundries from monday’s storms, claudette and the cold front will lead to lines and clusters of storms firing up by early afternoon. As the afternoon goes on storms will organize into a line near the ohio river and a cluster should orgainze fairly well over southern ky and move northeast. my concern continues to be when these two clusters meet the one going se from the front and the one moving n from the tropical system. the result should be a big slow moving convective complex over most of the state from about dinner time till almost rush hour. thus areas which see the most concentrated areas have a high risk for flash flooding with the ground already being saturated. the nam 18z may be hinting at this as well, the 00z run had trouble with handling the moisture source in the gulf.

storms fire up in the pm

complex move east by wed am

 

the next front looks like a severe weather threat now and much stronger than this first front with a blast of early fall behind it.

notice bill now gets picked up by a little trouhg off the east coast which should be enough to say bye to bill the major hurricane of the bunch and anna is on life support now.

the hpc has average rain amounts of 2-4 inches for ky this week.

i think totals this week should range from 2-6 inches myself and there will a few flash flood warns both midweek and with a potential squall line friday with front #2 to justify my high risk of flash flooding.

with front #2 timing is everything for a squall line of severe storms highs will be in the low to mid 80’s most of the week.

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