claudette and our week ahead

by

first an update on “A” which is now claudette.

radars

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mxx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

above sources, nhc, noaa

my path

us15

hpc rainfall forecasts each day mon,tue,wed

excessive rain risk for tue

HPC

REMNANTS OF TS CLAUDETTE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH ACROSS WRN
TN/KY THEN NEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY AREA.  SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE TOO WELL…LARGELY FOLLOWED THE ENERGY
INDICATED ON THE 12Z/GFDL GUIDANCE.  GENERALLY EXPECT AVG AMTS OF
UP TO 1 INCH THRU THIS AREA THOUGH WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS MUCH
HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY LOCALLY.  BY WEDS THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE
INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY TO ENHANCE PCPN EWD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

my rainfall risk map

us16

light green low risk to red high risk of flash flooding in that zone. notice where we are.

now to the bottom line of the week ahead

1. monday will feature some of the old boundries off claudette moving north with there mositure and a front still to our north as high pressure will loose out storms chances still 30-40% with highs 85-90.

2. tuesday our first front of the week moves into areas along the ohio river delevoping thunderstorms along the front  in the afternoon with very hvy rains, organized periods of rain and thunder from claudette should work north and east from nashville by tuesday night into our area. expect coverage to be numerous with training and slow moving tropical downpours to create some flash flooding problems.one thing that has me worryed is the gfs has the front stalled on a west to east line which would promote this training.

3. rain and thunder should be numerous early wednesday before more scattered hvy rain proucers fire up in the afternoon highs both days will be in the low to mid 80’s.

4. the next front pushes in thu-fri with more storms

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: