my predictions about “A”, Anna and Bill

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first i’ll give my first forecast on all three of these systems including the one I labeled “A” a few days ago which no one seems to notice in the gulf. although it is fairly week.

system 1  ANNA

ANNA is turning wnw in the atlantic here is the adv info from the nhc and there track.

I don’t think this is to far off, the nam and gfs take it a little futher north than this as a wave, while the models that are indicating there is a storm take it a little south of this track. for now ANNA is fighting off shear and dry air big time and i don’t expect much more in terms of  strength from ANNA. my track takes it into days 6 and 7 when the models are bringing a trough into the tenn and ohio valleys.  the main question is can it conquer shear and landmasses. my thinking is 50 mph before a landfall then it’s a minimal depression then it has to get to a min hurricane over the gulf with a hit from mobile to tampa likely at this time next weekend.

us7

Verdict: very limited impact to ky as front should keep it east of here.

BILL

BILL is getting going by the looks of things tonight, anna will suck up most of the dry air and limit the shear on BILL, so there is very little to prevent BILL from becoming a major hurricane in 5 or 6 days besides land.

nhc adv and there track

the gudience over the passed  few days is all over the place with the gfs leading the way in flops. My thinking now is that BILL is an east coast storm. one thing of intrest by next weekend is how the two storms being very close to each other turns out. one thing is for sure east coast residents in my cone should be a little edgey now and we will all hope for a track in the eastern side of my cone.

us14

Verdict: east coast watch out

let’s get to our little friend “A” which has about a 33% of forming a tropical depression by monday afternoon in my view, nhc has under 30. time is running against it. i hope you checked the nam out last night streaming this tropical disturbance north into the tenn and ohio valleys as the first of our fronts this week moves in. the nws dicussions did mention the tropical juice coming north today. again the trend in precip chances  this summer is put them in b/c once again today i had a less than 20 (usually no mention in forecast for under 20% chance) which looking back on things should have been 30% today as hvy rains did fall in several spots today from pop ups which the models did not pick up well, another bonus rain.

sat view of “A”

here is the 00z nam from today showing more of the same as “A” merges with our front for tues- wed.

mon am

mon eve

tue pm

notice it has anna as well going north of the islands as a wave.

 

Verdict: increased tropical mositure from “A” tue-wed along the front leads to more widespread storms with hvy tropical rains and some more flood threats in local spots.

back to the next few days

1. I’m throwing in a storm chance for sunday with highs again well into the 80’s bwg could get to 90 or 92.

2. a ridge over the se us should hold off the next front till tuesday making monday similar to sunday but with a little of that tropical jucie moving in late about 30% coverage.  

4. tue-wed should see a likelyhood of storms with the front close by and a good infux of A’s leftovers coming in.

5. next front for thu-fri with more storms and hvy rain threats

6. models will flip and flop as this a period of great uncertainty with the extra tropical problems to deal with

7.  preliminary winter forecast will be issued thursday hopefully!

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One Response to “my predictions about “A”, Anna and Bill”

  1. mitchg Says:

    “A” has turned into four and into Claudette soon. it rements will be here late tuesday, more to come later.

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