stormy saturday

by

low pressure is still expected to move across the great lakes tomorrow and drag a strong cold front with it across the Ohio valley forcing and dynamics ahead of the front will be favorable for thunderstorm formation. Some of the storms may be strong with gusty winds late in the afternoon or early evening especially if they can organize into a squall line.  highs will be in the low to mid 80’s for the next week or so with lows in the low 60’s.

let’s look at the model progression of storms tomorrow

nam radar 18z  sat pm- sun am

18z gfs sat pm- sun am

 

storms should form over indiana and drop southeast into kentucky by late afternoon and move through the region through the night, i’d say 70 to 80% coverage at this time. the spc also a slight risk of severe weather for us now as well.

i’ll update with watches and warnings tommorow.

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19 Responses to “stormy saturday”

  1. mitchg Says:

    squall line taking nosedive se toward ky overnight, numerous severe warnings in effect nw of us.

  2. mitchg Says:

    overcast likely holding things in check, I doubt a watch will be issued.

  3. mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm watch for the rest of this afternoon into tonight, the spc is watching the line in se indiana, only one storm in the region that is is strong now north of louisville.

  4. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    332 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 415 PM EDT

    * AT 331 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLIGO…OR 18 MILES
    SOUTHWEST OF CARROLLTON…AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    CAMPBELLSBURG AND EMINENCE AROUND 340 PM EDT…
    NEW CASTLE AROUND 345 PM EDT…
    BETHLEHEM AND PORT ROYAL AROUND 350 PM EDT…
    LOCKPORT AROUND 400 PM EDT…

  5. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
    351 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    OWEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

    * AT 350 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
    TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SQUIRESVILLE…MOVING EAST
    AT 50 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    OWENTON…
    DRY RIDGE…
    WILLIAMSTOWN…

  6. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BRACKEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    MASON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN PENDLETON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    ROBERTSON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…
    EXTREME SOUTHERN CLERMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

    * AT 432 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
    TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALMOUTH…MOVING EAST AT 40
    MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BROOKSVILLE…
    AUGUSTA…
    RIPLEY…
    WASHINGTON…
    MAYSVILLE…
    ABERDEEN…
    LEWISBURG…

  7. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    428 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
    KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 515 PM EDT

    * AT 427 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    FAUBUSH…OR 14 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO…AND MOVING EAST AT 35
    MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    NAOMI BY 435 PM EDT…
    NANCY…TRIMBLE AND POINTER BY 440 PM EDT…
    PULASKI COUNTY PARK BY 445 PM EDT…
    SOMERSET…SOMERSET PULASKI AIRPORT AND BURNSIDE BY 450 PM EDT…
    FERGUSON AND ELIHU BY 455 PM EDT…

  8. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    441 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT

    * AT 441 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    CONLEY STATION…OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SALYERSVILLE…AND MOVING EAST
    AT 20 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    GYPSY…MARSHALLVILLE…GALDIA AND GAPVILLE BY 450 PM EDT…
    GALDIA AND GAPVILLE BY 455 PM EDT…
    RICEVILLE BY 500 PM EDT…
    BRAINARD…SWAMP BRANCH AND DOBSON BY 505 PM EDT…

  9. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    444 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTH CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT

    * AT 443 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    CABELL…OR 9 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO…AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    SUSIE…PARNELL AND HIDALGO BY 450 PM EDT…
    COOPER AND MONTICELLO BY 500 PM EDT…
    OIL VALLEY BY 505 PM EDT…
    BARRIER AND BURFIELD BY 510 PM EDT…
    COOPERSVILLE AND ROCKEYBRANCH BY 515 PM EDT…

  10. mitchg Says:

    decent bow heading toward maysville 50 mph winds possibile

  11. mitchg Says:

    cell north of morehead may have some large hail.

  12. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    459 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT

    * AT 458 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    HILDA…OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOREHEAD…AND MOVING EAST AT 35
    MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    CRANSTON BY 505 PM EDT…
    GATES AND TRIPLETT BY 510 PM EDT…
    HALDEMAN BY 515 PM EDT…

  13. mitchg Says:

    storms heading toward corbin of most concern now.

  14. mitchg Says:

    strong storm heading toward whitesburg

  15. mitchg Says:

    storms really redelevoping tonight big time.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

    * AT 1136 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    TRIXIE…OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF BOONEVILLE…AND MOVING EAST AT 25
    MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    SEBASTIAN…MISTLETOE AND GOBBARD BY 1145 PM EDT…
    RICETOWN AND WHOOPFLAREA BY 1150 PM EDT…
    LUCKY FORK AND VALJEAN BY 1155 PM EDT…
    MORRIS FORK BY MIDNIGHT EDT…
    CROCKETTSVILLE AND BUCKHORN BY 1205 AM EDT…

  16. mitchg Says:

    lots of lightning in versailles now.

  17. mitchg Says:

    minor water problems possibile for 1-64 counties west of morehead.

  18. mitchg Says:

    same is true for most of se ky as storms there a refiring like gangbusters now.

  19. mitchg Says:

    bardstown to lawrenceburg to versailles to lexington to winchester to morehead there is a risk of a flash flood event to set-up as a classic training setup is underway now and storms are refiring like crazy even back torward e-town and are moving due east over the same areas.

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