more severe weather and storms

by

1. once again with the same front over the region more showers and storms will be with us through friday night. for thursday and friday the action will be scattered with similar threats as wednesday. friday night another new cold front will push through with a squall line of thunderstorms enhanicng the wind threat.

spc thurs

 MCV ASSOCD WITH EARLY DAY MCS OVER THE MID-MS VLY/LWR OH VLY WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING.  SYSTEM WILL
   BOOST WNWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE REGION AMIDST VERY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS INVOF A RETURNING WRMFNT.  TSTMS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
   ACROSS SRN IND/WRN KY EARLY IN THE AFTN AS PSBL STG MULTICELLS/ISOLD
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL…BUT THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO A BOWING
   SYSTEM.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH THE SRN APLCNS DURING THE
   EVENING WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS

spc fri

SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EARLY
   IN THE DAY3 PERIOD.  STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
   SHOULD EXTEND FROM MO…NEWD INTO OH WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 70KT BY
   20/00Z OVER IL.  ALTHOUGH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT VEERED
   THROUGH A DEEP LAYER…STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT STRONGLY FAVORS ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY…EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OH
   VALLEY REGION BY LATE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS IL/IN ARE
   QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG WITH
   SFC-6KM FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 50KT.  ADDITIONALLY…VERY HIGH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES…ROUGHLY 1.75-2.00 INCHES…WILL ENSURE
   THE POTENTIAL FOR HEALTHY UPDRAFTS WITHIN THIS STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD AN
   INCREASINGLY BUOYANT PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY…ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP BY 18Z THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD
   WITHIN MEAN FLOW APPROACHING 50KT.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IF
   THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE…POSSIBLY A DERECHO.
  
no rest for us weatherdudes and gals out there!! most of blog time will be for comments and shorter updates on severe weather hopefully saturday we can resume with normal posts.

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