el-nino watch

by

el-nino is underway. this is a warming of the tropical Pacific waters to .5*C above normal for a period of 3 months or more. over the past year we have been in a la-nina state. some of the models such as the cfs have this being a strong el-nino however i think this will be a week one which means that other factors such as the nao and pdo will still have significant influence in the climate for the rest of 2009.

looking ahead to some analogs linking winters to nino states.

76/77  85/86 02/03 and 06/07  

quite a mixture in this group as of now winter could be feast or famine.

some nino links

government links and graphs of the ninos 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

changes in sea temps

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

el-nino and la-nina conditions

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

2. tomorrow will see a few more clouds and higher humidity under a sw flow with highs in the mid 80’s. another hvy rain event later in the week, watching the western Caribbean as well for tropical formation.

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