rain rain go away come again another day

by

we’ve been singing that song every day now. I’ll continue to keep updates short over the next week with finals and graduation.  we’ll just talk about wednesday on this post.

1. a week low pressure with a large area of showers and storms has organized over the southern plains this will become heavier and more widespread to our sw. this area of hvy rain will then move ne with the area of low pressure. rivers and streams are still high in east ky and these addtional rains will lead to more high water problems.

there is a flood watch for east ky

…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO EAST KENTUCKY
ON WEDNESDAY…

.ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.
ROBUST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO INCHES…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS…COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY FROM 8 AM TO MIDNIGHT.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-060400-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FA.A.0004.090506T1200Z-090507T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…
PAINTSVILLE…CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…
BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…
MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2009

…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…NORTHEAST
  KENTUCKY…SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
  BATH…ELLIOTT…ESTILL…FLEMING…MENIFEE…MONTGOMERY…
  POWELL AND ROWAN. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…JOHNSON AND MARTIN.
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…LAUREL…MCCREARY…PULASKI…
  ROCKCASTLE…WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…BELL…
  BREATHITT…CLAY…FLOYD…HARLAN…JACKSON…KNOTT…KNOX…
  LEE…LESLIE…LETCHER…MAGOFFIN…MORGAN…OWSLEY…PERRY…
  PIKE AND WOLFE.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF EAST KENTUCKY
  ON WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
  DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING…WEDNESDAY…WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS NEW RAINFALL…COMBINED WITH THE
  RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS… WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
  FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT
  RISES ON THE RIVERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM THIS RAIN LATER
  WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY POTENTIALLY LEADING TO RIVER FLOODING.

* MUDSLIDES AND WASHOUTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FLASH FLOODING.

however there is model disagreement exactly which part of the area the hvy axis of rain goes over

NAM wed am

NAM wed pm

totals of 1-3 inches tommorow along the ohio river

GFS

rainfall of 1-2 inches centered on east ky

After looking at the nws discussions i like the approach of JKL using a blend of the sref, nam and gfs models on where the main shield will go. the build of the hvy rain and thunder will occur between 10 am and 4 pm.

 

kycountymap30

I’ll pass along any changes or flood warnings as needed.

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One Response to “rain rain go away come again another day”

  1. mitchg Says:

    18z gfs correcting west for tommorow looks close to my map

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