Big step forward for myself!!!!

In the fall i will be attending Western Kentucky University in the fall for graduate school to pursue a M.S in geosciences with a large portion of that being atmospheric sciences (meteorology). I’m very excited about being part of the department down there at Western.  The blog will see no major changes with regards to content or updates at least through the summer. I will be grauating with a B.S in geogrpahy with a math minor on may 9. there will no posts ( unless we have severe weather) on may 9 (my graduation) or May 10 (my graduation party) which by the way those of you who have been a part of this blog for the past year are invited to attend. Any other changes to the regular schedule will be announced as they become known for the summer.  there also several new links from the program at western.

1. sunday and monday should continue to see breezy dry sw winds and highs near 85 which will get those alergies going strong.

now on to the bad news for the rest of the week we’re actually going to need to look at some models again. the 12z gfs and the cmc are close to each other through next weekend.

2. a front moves in  for tuesday with showers and storms likely temps as a result of the clouds will begin a downward trend into the upper 70’s.  some of the storms late tuesday could have gusty winds ahead of the cold front.

3.  for wednesday the front stalls near us keeping the storm chance  the main threat wednesday will be locally hvy downpours from slow moving storms. highs will likley be on the low side of the 70’s and lows throughout the week should be around 60.

4. thursday the front lifts north as a warm front very slowly this should mean more periods of storms however on thursday an isolated tornado risk may enter the picture along with gusty winds as another low rides along the front.  same temp pattern though southern ky could reach 80 again if the front goes far enough north.

5.  the first warm front will continue to ride north friday but another blast of chilly air with bring another cold front with it. i think this may be the trickest day of the forecast as it could be dry and very warm with gusty winds like today but for now a thunderstorm chance exists with highs near 80.

6. this second front would then bring a squall line and/or several clusters of thunderstorms through for derby day with a gusty wind and hvy rain threat.

7.  if this second front stalls the flood threat goes up.

00z cmc goes along nicely

thunderstorm chances by tuesday night with periods of storms through thursday, it does hang the storm chances through friday and then brign the next front through.

to recap

– frontal movement next week will make forecast tricky so check back

– thunderstorm chances most days best threat for gusty winds tuesday and saturday

– wet derby day threat

– second front could hang around as well leading to flooding threat in extended

gfs rainfall april 28-may1

gfs rain may 1-4

looking ahead to the veery long range

12z gfs may 11

this is starting to get into summer notice the western ridge is where i had it in the summer outlook, which is a very good sign my outlook is on the right track. I could see some early tropical delevopment in the western gulf in june this run could be hinting at that several weeks early.