play ball! UPDATE 7 PM!!!!

by

( scroll down a bit if you’re not intrested in the baseball portion of the post)

it’s opening day in the majors for kicks i’ll give my division winners and picks.

nl east-phillies nl cent- cubs nl west- dodgers nl wildcard- braves al east- red sox al cent- white sox al west- angels al wild card- rays nl champ- phills al champ- red sox

reds opening day forecast

36* snow 80% little accumlation during game nw wind 20 mph. easy to say opening day will likely not be monday.

my opener is tonight as the phills have a world series crown to defend

 

 

these are all images off google.

1. back to our daily job of the weather today we have an active day in store once again we’re under a slight risk for severe weather. you’re saying wait the last risk was a dud, this time it looks like there will be more instabilty and the warm front has pushed north through the area this time and we’re in the area of the storm where severe weather can occur so i think there is a risk. BUT today will be sunny throughout the day and storms will not approach till late afternoon i expect a line of showers and storms to come through this evening with some gusty winds and small hail. I’ll update with watches and warnings as the day goes along.

spc outlook

tornado threat

hail and wind

THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER
   NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHEAST TX.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
   MEM AREA.  RATHER STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN IL/IND
   SOUTHWARD…HELPING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE
   TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
   WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM STL-MEM.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.  HOWEVER…FAVORABLE
   ORIENTATION OF FRONT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND MAGNITUDE OF
   LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY.
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS…BUT A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IF DEWPOINTS RISE FASTER/HIGHER
   THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED…THE TORNADO RISK WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
   STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THIS
   EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

highs will be near 70 today before taking a nosedive tonight into the upper 30’s. winds will be southerly today before shifting to the nw and becoming very gusty. evening thunderstorms will be floowed by some rain showers

2. temperatures monday will steady out in the mid 30’s with gusty nw winds as arctic air moves in for a late season appearance. upper air disturbances, a nw flow off the lakes and cold air aloft will create numerous snow showers with a period of snow likely monday afternoon. temperatures tuesday will start out near 30 and not rise into the mid 30’s with more snow showers. tuesday night wil be the highest threat for a freeze with lows in the upper 20’s.

qpf for snow showers 6z gfs

again we’ll go 5:1 ratios which puts lexington with about an inch and areas of se ky up to 3 inches.

gfs snowmap 6z

the maps may be underestimating the warm ground a bit, this map also shows some isolated higher totals are possibile and where those occur will be based on wind direction off the lakes. some of this will melt at times and wil be over the two day period.

my map

kycountymap28

 

UPDATE 7PM

a new tornado watch has been issued, after a dull afternoon 2 lines of storms have fired up.

line 1 along 1-65 then nw along 1-71 as of 7 pm, non severe storms however winds to 40 mph and hail to 1/2 inch diameter are possibile. the storms are moving NE at 30 mph.

they will arrive in

lexington 8:00 pm

danville 8:20 pm

somerset 8:40 pm

morehead 9:00 pm

Jackson 9:20 pm

line 2  central indiana to owensboro to w.nashville

these storms are bowing out with wind gusts of 70 mph in spots with numerous severe thunderstorm  warnings, severe hail of 1 inch is also possibile.

radar

 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LVX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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16 Responses to “play ball! UPDATE 7 PM!!!!”

  1. mitchg Says:

    from the spc

    NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WATCH 117.

    GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
    OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL KY INTO SWRN OH.
    ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT…BUOYANCY
    WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF DEEPENING
    SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS SRN IND INTO EXTREME SRN OH.
    NEEDLESS TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
    AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE…ALONG WITH A
    LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  2. mitchg Says:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0119.html

    NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

  3. mitchg Says:

    line 1 becoming stronger and line 2 weeker
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN SPENCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 800 PM EDT…

    * AT 721 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COXS CREEK TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
    OF BUFFALO..AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
    FAIRFIELD…NEW HAVEN…BARDSTOWN AROUND 730 PM EDT…
    WAKEFIELD…BLOOMFIELD AROUND 735 PM EDT…
    HOLY CROSS AROUND 740 PM EDT…
    ST. FRANCIS…FREDRICKTOWN AROUND 745 PM EDT…
    RAYWICK AROUND 750 PM EDT..

  4. mitchg Says:

    watching nelson.co cell for rotation

  5. mitchg Says:

    washington and marion counties seek shelter now torando signature on doppler.

  6. mitchg Says:

    storm has bowed out ending tornado threat look out anderson and northern woodford for very gusty winds from the bow.

  7. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN HART COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    METCALFE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 745 PM CDT/845 PM EDT/…

    * AT 811 PM EDT/711 PM CDT/…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
    INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    NICKEL SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
    STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUFFALO TO
    HISEVILLE TO 7 MILES WEST OF FOREST SPRINGS..AND MOVING EAST AT 45
    MPH.

  8. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BOYLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN MERCER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 900 PM EDT…

    * AT 826 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
    SOUTHWEST OF GRAVEL SWITCH..AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    GRAVEL SWITCH AND JACKTOWN AROUND 835 PM EDT…
    MITCHELLSBURG AROUND 840 PM EDT…
    PARKSVILLE AND PERRYVILLE AROUND 845 PM EDT…
    JUNCTION CITY AROUND 850 PM EDT…

  9. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON…
    NORTHERN JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 900 PM EDT…

    * AT 835 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KEENE..AND MOVING EAST AT
    30 MPH.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    NICHOLASVILLE AROUND 845 PM EDT…
    LEXINGTON AROUND 850 PM EDT…
    SPEARS AROUND 855 PM EDT…

  10. mitchg Says:

    TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 815 PM CDT…

    * AT 737 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FOREST
    SPRINGS…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
    HOLLAND AROUND 745 PM CDT…
    FOUNTAIN RUN AROUND 755 PM CDT…
    AKERSVILLE AROUND 800 PM CDT…
    FLIPPIN AROUND 805 PM CDT…

  11. mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm watch for rest of state

  12. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN BOYLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN GARRARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 930 PM EDT…

    * AT 849 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL…AND
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    DANVILLE..AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED NICKLE
    SIZED HAIL IN DANVILLE AT 845 PM EDT.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    BRYANTSVILLE AND BUENA VISTA AROUND 900 PM EDT…
    MCCREARY AND CAMP NELSON AROUND 905 PM EDT…
    BUCKEYE AROUND 910 PM EDT..

  13. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 945 PM EDT

    * AT 914 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES NORTH OF
    STAB…OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERSET…MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BRODHEAD…
    CEDARVILLE…
    MOUNT VERNON…
    SCIENCE HILL…
    SOMERSET.

  14. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY…NORTHWESTERN BATH…NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN
    AND FLEMING COUNTIES…

    AT 928 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED NEAR BETHEL…OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF OWINGSVILLE…MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    HILLSBORO…OAKLEY…GRANGE CITY AND TILTON BY 935 PM EDT…
    GODDARD…POPLAR PLAINS AND RINGOS MILLS BY 940 PM EDT…
    MUSES MILLS…PLUMMERS LANDING AND WALLINGFORD BY 945 PM EDT…

  15. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHERN LAUREL…NORTHERN CLAY…EAST CENTRAL PULASKI…EASTERN
    ROCKCASTLE…OWSLEY…JACKSON…WEST CENTRAL BREATHITT…LEE…
    ESTILL…WESTERN WOLFE…SOUTHERN POWELL AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
    MENIFEE COUNTIES…

    AT 952 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
    SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
    WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICE STATION TO
    COLLINGSWORTH TO LUNER…OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM IRVINE TO
    MCKEE TO 11 MILES WEST OF LONDON…MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
    COTTAGE FURNACE…HARDWICK…WIND CAVE AND WILLOW TREE BY 1000 PM
    EDT…
    FITCHBURG…FURNACE…KNOWLTON AND WILLOW SHOALS BY 1005 PM EDT…
    PILOT AND SEE BY 1010 PM EDT…

    THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS…BRINGING
    DOWN TREES IN MOUNT VERNON AROUND 9:47 PM. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
    STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

  16. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    BREATHITT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    KNOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTH CENTRAL LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WOLFE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

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