enjoy the weekend

by

1. i hope you enjoy the weekend b/c tommorow we’ll have sunny skies and highs near 60 after a chilly start and  maybe a touch of frost with lows falling into the upper 30’s tonight, if we don’t get frost maybe some fog as temps will be close to the dewpoint with residual mositure to aid in fog delevopment and light winds.

2. sunday we’ll get well into the 60’s with stronger southerly winds by nightime a major cold front will close in with showers and some storms. any severe weather early in the evening will depend on if there is any instabilty during the day.

spc

the map tells us see text which means the risk is less than slight but we’ll do what it says and see the text.

 NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS RANGING
   FROM THE MID-UPR 40S IN CNTRL IL/IND TO THE 60S FROM TN SWD WILL BE
   IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE APCHG CDFNT.  STEEP LAPSE RATE
   IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ATOP THIS MOISTURE /H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 18 DEG C/
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.  STRONG ASCENT WITHIN
   EXIT REGION OF THE 90+ KT MID-LVL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF THE MS RVR BY NOON WITH STORMS SPREADING ENE
   INTO THE OH/TN VLYS DURING THE AFTN.  THE SVR RISK WILL HINGE ON HOW
   MUCH INSTABILITY CAN INDEED DEVELOP…BUT ATTM GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   THE SYSTEM…AT LEAST ISOLD HAIL/HIGH WIND EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED
   WITH EWD EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT ARRIVING ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN
   OH…CNTRL KY AND ERN TN SUNDAY EVENING.

3. now the real reason why you should enjoy the weekend. a major arctic blast for early april is on the way with nw winds of 20-30 mph temps will plument into the 30’s monday morning and stay there throughout the day that’s 20+ below avg!!! several disturbances will swing around the low and with the nw flow off the lake numerous snow showers will move through the area and cold air aloft could make these moderate at times monday afternoon. the widespread snow showers will continue all the way into wednesday morning. lows tue/wed will dip into the upper 20’s and highs only near 35. this will likely kill a lot of plants and have a big time impact on the growing season.

18z gfs timeline

mon noon

mon sunset

tue am

tue pm

qpf with snow showers

wow! but that’s over 2 days. as for accums i expect the warm ground to hinder things, in march i overestimated the warm ground we’ll see this time. we’ll go all snow due to cold air aloft and ratios of 5:1

so that would mean an inch in lexington for the 2 days and 2 or 3 inches east and higher elevations.

be careful of snow maps as they don’t factor in a very warm ground.

hpc winter maps

THE SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTHERN OHIO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING COLD AIR ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY…TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KY/TN/WV AND MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST…WITH ISOLATED 4+ INCH SNOWFALLS ACROSS ERN IL/NRN
IN/LOWER MI/AND PORTIONS OF ERN KY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND BLUE RIDGE.

not april like to me a slight risk for 4 inches of snow at my house WOW WOW WOW!!!!!!!!!

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