back to square one

by

1. showers and some thunder should mainly be an issue wednesday in the morning and needed help for the eastern ky fires. highs  will be in the low 60’s. thursday i will raise chances as another week low with another slug of rain and thunder moves through with highs again near 60.

total rainfall wed-thu

gfs

nam

i expect rainfall to be around an inch by thursday night and this could  cut our deficit by a third for the month.

map of precip totals

www.kymesonet.org

2. our stonger area of low pressure will move into the region for friday through sunday with a complex set-up ahead of it showers and storms will be widespread and hvy for friday into saturday if enough sun can peak through 70 is possible with strong southerly winds. the track of the low will be critical in the next step of the forecast does it track nw of us late saturday increasing the severe threat does it go overhead and give us hvy rain with a northern ohio valley snowstorm or does it dare go se and turn us into another Pierre,SD. I see all are possbile for now but there has been a dangerous trend east in the track from the models today and i’m seeing a blocking high and negative nao which would prevent a lakes cutter. needless to say a lot of the details have to be worked out.

my concerns show up on the 12z ensembles, instead of a severe threat we may have more of a winter threat of some of these tracks end up being right.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf132.html

my track and associated weather looks similar to the first map (square 1) that i issued.

usmap25

lgt blue-10% ch 3 inches, navy blue 100% ch of 3 inches each clor is 30% higher than the last one.

 

again push the track nw and severe weather sat night if further se a transtion to a wet accumlating snow right now we’re in the middle which means a hvy rain and thunder event.

temps may vary considerabily saturday from 55-70.

3. our midnight temps will likely be the high for sunday likely in the 40’s but temps will hold steady or fall possibly into the 30’s with rain and snow showers. most forecasts still have 60 or so i still don’t see that maybe 50’s if the front slows up and we get  that for a midnight high.

4. there will be another system behind this one.

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