severe weather outbreak today

by

full sunshine has resulted in instabilty in the warm sector which will allow for strong and severe storms later today. a squall line has already fromed west of st.louis as of 10 am producing storms with gusty winds, hail and tornadoes. the prime area i refer to often between the warm and the cold fornt will become unstable leading to a continued delevopment of the squall line and some isolated supercells ahead of it. things should be very active by this evening across the region more than what i thought yesturday as we may have to throw in hail and isolated tornadoes into tonights’ threats as well, the storms look to be more widespread with our squall line already formed.

spc outlooks

the moderate risk area is the area i define as the prime sector in this case. for our tuesday event i expect the prime sector to be overhead, again the prime sector is the area just south of tjhe warm front that is unstable and east of the cold front in the peak heating hours.

odds

late this afternoon scattered storms will form along and north of 1-64 that is best chance for hail or an isolated tornado. the squall line will roll through this evening likely interpting your sunday night shows. my main concern is for another round of wind damage second is the risk for an isloated tornado.

radars

afternoon cells will flare up on this radar and by this afternoon our squall line will be on this one.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php

our squall line at 10 am is on this image

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly.php

i’ll update before my social events i have to go to start this afternoon

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