model madness (updated)

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1.tonight the cold front will come through the area with showers and storms ahead of it late tonight some of these may produce gusty winds and small hail along with hvy downpours and lightning. lows tonight and highs tommorow will be near 50 with falling temps into the upper 30’s as the flow shifts from sw to n. friday night we’ll awaiting the next storm .

 

SHORT TERM UPDATE

– severe storms are starting to weeken well to our west this evening it does look like we will get  a band of gusty showers with thunder. here are some special weather statements discussing the wind.

…MORE STRONG WINDS…

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT…WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA…NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH THERE.

TRAVELERS WILL FIND NAVIGATING THROUGH THE STRONG WINDS LATE
TONIGHT DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST INTERSTATES…BECAUSE OF CROSS WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION…VISIT YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

…GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT…

SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS AND ALONG
THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS…ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING
ALONG EAST WEST ROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION…YOU CAN VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY

2.  model madness is the key for the weekend as each model run has it’s own solution with regards to phasing of our jigsaw pieces the track of the low and thermal profiles. right now we could be in line for a mix of precip sat and snow sat night, the more important question is qpf amounts, the amount of precip that falls. let’s look at the nam 12  and 18z from thursday

each model has there own say and it gets to be one big blur, the 12z gfs has a snowstorm for myrtle beach, SC while the 18z nam brings a wintery mess to us. the most extreme was the 00z euro cutting the low off in the apps and dumping snow on us.  

my updated thinking

usmap18

light blue- 0-30% ch 4 inch snow

med blue- 20-50% ch 4 in snow

dark blue 35-70% ch 4 in snow, 0-20% ch 8 in snow or more

LONG TERM UPDATE

the new model runs suggest my thinking that they will correct west is turing out to be true. check out the 00z nam for the weekend  thermal profiles are also cooler, meaning all snow if not mostly snow.

 

 

NGM ( the furthest west likely to far west)

SREF avg qpf for late sat into sun

but the gfs says not so fast

we still have some waiting to do.

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4 Responses to “model madness (updated)”

  1. mitchg Says:

    00z nam requires another update later tonight, hvy snow chances increasing.

  2. mitchg Says:

    i think a medium between the nam and gfs say 3-6, local 8 may be a good bet for the main band of snow north of this lighter snow will fall south of this a mix with ice and rain will occur. the models now say the band will set up from london to jackson and south of ashland. i expect another more suttle adjustment nw with the 00z’s not enough of a shift to put lou and cvg in line for more than a coating. it may be enough in areas like winchester, danville and mt.sterling to change the forecast from a lighter snow to being in the snow band and for those of you in pikeville and hazard to see more of a mix. winter storm watches for portions of the jkl area should go up this afternoon.

  3. mitchg Says:

    i think a medium between the nam and gfs say 3-6, local 8 may be a good bet for the main band of snow north of this lighter snow will fall south of this a mix with ice and rain will occur. the models now say the band will set up from london to jackson and south of ashland. i expect another more suttle adjustment nw with the 00z’s not enough of a shift to put lou and cvg in line for more than a coating. it may be enough in areas like winchester, danville and mt.sterling to change the forecast from a lighter snow to being in the snow band and for those of you in pikeville and hazard to see more of a mix.winter storm watches for portions of the jkl area should go up this afternoon.

  4. mitchg Says:

    winter storm update will be on about 7 i’ve had a very busy day today with personal live matters and classes. there will then be a bonus update around or before 2 am then we will go into winter storm mode tommorow.

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