things don’t always seem as the appear part 2

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1. after some decent snow showers with 2in hr rates at times and .5 in at my house, bringing my season total to 17.2. it will be cold tonight with lows in the 10’s and highs friday in the mid 30’s. friday night will see clouds increase ahead of a complex clipper system.  we may very well finish really close to my 20.0 preseason total prediction.

2. it looks like a solution half way between no storm and a quick movement into new england and a storm over the gulf coast. i showed the nam earlier today which along with the other models have shifted toward a middle ground. a clipper with snow north of the warm front will cross northern sections of the region around daybreak with a decent band from chi-det south to indy.  waa will allow mositure flow into the system creating precip along and behind the front very cold air will move in behind the front.

my surface map sat 8 am

usmap14

 

sat noon

usmap15

 

pre-warm frontal snow fri night into sat am

kycountymap111

precip type sat noon as second round of precip forms overhead.

kycountymap12

2 pm

kycountymap13

4pm

kycountymap15

6pm

kycountymap16

8pm

kycountymap17

that includes temps as well on those maps light rain should break out for the early afternoon changing to several hours of snow with an inch maybe two of accumulation highs will range from the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

3. sunday will be cold with snow showers very similar to today nw flow and enough upper air energy and moisture off the lakes to produce these. temps sunday may not reach 30. with high ratios up to another inch may fall in spots for the weekend i think many places avg around 2 inches with a 1-4 inch range for the weekend, since this will be drawn out over 36-48 hrs don’t expect adv’s from the nws just sws’s.  

4. monday and tuesday will be quiet with highs in the 30’s and 40’s. wednesday waa really kicks in allowing for highs 45-50 ahead of what should be a frontal system with a big time temp difference by the end of nextweek. a rule of thumb in march and when there big airmass clashes severe weather usually occurs. as it looks now we will be in the warm sector.

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2 Responses to “things don’t always seem as the appear part 2”

  1. raindome Says:

    I have a feeling the almighty and powerful WAA will change everybody over to rain Saturday afternoon for everybody in Kentucky. Even northern kentucky.

    Just look at the NWS temp bust for yesterday. Temps forecasted to be in the low 50s and here in northern kentucky we ended up in the upper 60s!

  2. Mitchg Says:

    raindome: never underestimate WAA you know that lesson well my friend good thing most of this will be post frontal.

    long range temp over a 100*F difference from texas to the canada border. could have two storms the first a lakes cutter with severe weather the second a low across the south with snow out of this pattern.

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