noon update: skeptisim doesn’t pay off in this business

by

my 3 points about no severe threat are being nullified, we are clearing out, no covection over the deep south  robbing northward movement of mositure and the cold front is well to  our north. we already have have one severe thunderstorm warning near bowling green as of 11:45 am and more thunderstorms may fire up along the frontal boundry as the day goes on.

 

the threats from any scattered storms are gusty winds, small hail(the air is colder aloft this time) and maybe even an isolated tornado.

spc outlook

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0953 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009
  
   AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN
  
   CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 181553Z – 181730Z
  
   THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED…SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A WW.
  
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN SHORT WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OVER WRN KY
   INTO NWRN TN AS OF 1540Z.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF FAIRLY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING/MOISTENING PER 3-HR CHANGE FIELDS.  MOREOVER…WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
   THROUGH IL/IND. 
  
   BASED ON 12Z LIT SOUNDING…ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH
   MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG.  CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF
   COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
   WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
   /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KT/ WITH GENERALLY
   LONG…STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.  AS SUCH…ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.  A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
   CYCLONIC UPDRAFTS.  AS SUCH…1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER
   NWD IN KY AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

link to there MD on this

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0119.html

 

be on the alert with any warnings, the best chances for severe weather are sw of lexington where it is more likely to clear out leading to more sun and instabilty.

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12 Responses to “noon update: skeptisim doesn’t pay off in this business”

  1. mitchg Says:

    severe thunderstorm warning for the glasgow area
    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ074&warncounty=KYC009&firewxzone=KYZ074&local_place1=5+Miles+WNW+Eighty+Eight+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning

  2. mitchg Says:

    this storm may contain large hail

  3. mitchg Says:

    my classes just got done

    here are the current warnings to seperate areas one near the mtn pkwy 1-64 intersection the other one east of somerset over toward the va border

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ059&warncounty=KYC197&firewxzone=KYZ059&local_place1=Stanton+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ086&warncounty=KYC121&firewxzone=KYZ086&local_place1=3+Miles+W+Barbourville+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning

  4. mitchg Says:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ108&warncounty=KYC237&firewxzone=KYZ108&local_place1=4+Miles+SSW+Hazel+Green+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning

    new warnings estill and powell counties, risk of hail.

  5. mitchg Says:

    tornado warnning for bell and harlan counties

  6. mitchg Says:

    large hail with the cell nw of jkl along the mtn pkwy likely.

  7. mitchg Says:

    another storng storm over boyle and mercer counties.

  8. mitchg Says:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ120&warncounty=KYC195&firewxzone=KYZ120&local_place1=2+Miles+WNW+Varney+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning

  9. mitchg Says:

    wow i broke a record for talking to myself i know there people looking at the site eventought it likes a nice coversation with myself.

    I’ll post really late after the CMC which maybe 1 or 1:30 am i’m intrested to see which way the models will go for later saturday into sunday

    there two camps
    A: take all the energy along the northern stream just the clipper no storm for sunday
    B: leave a piece over the south and form a winter storm for sunday.

    models and ensembles are split 50/50.

  10. mitchg Says:

    NAM continues to the B team

  11. Shane Says:

    I’m anxiously awaiting the rest of the 0zs.

  12. mitchg Says:

    GFS joins team B.

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