active part of the week ahead

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1. tonight will see clouds increase and southerly flow pick up light sleet and rain should be found as well this evening with temps in the mid to upper 40’s. wait mitch that doesn’t make sense sleet and 48*????

– yes evaporational cooling and the very dry airmass with dewpoints near 10 in spots is contributing to some sleet out there.

rain spreads through the overnight hours mixing with sleet at the onset in spots and starting out as verga, precip that doesn’t hit the ground. lows will be in the mid to upper 30’s but isolated valley frz rain can’t be ruled out. i only think about 1/10 inch of rain as the verga will take a bit of that away.

2. wednesday will feature some wind perhaps up to 20 mph nothing like what we had highs may reach the mid 50’s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers maybe a rumble of thunder.

the spc had then dropped a slight risk for us

reasons why no severe weather expected this time

– not enough instabilty, to cloudy

– mositure being robbed by storms to our south

– front swings through by peak heating hours

strong winds flip around to the nw wed night and temps thursday steady around 30 with scattered snow showers and spotty coatings.

4. after a cold friday, near 32 our clipper moves in for fri night and sat going back to list yesturday my fear for snow from this was WAA WAA  warm air advection ahead of the clipper allowing for temps to climb above 32. the 12z gfs showed that but was the warmest of any of the ensembles / other opeartional models i’ve seen on this. the 18z gfs run is cooler temp wise

make sure to look at the surface temps as the 850 mb maps say no worries just snow, if it does get above 32 at the surface accumulations of snow will be cut off with even some changeovers to cold rain. map above and below are for sat am

total qpf  all snow for us as of now

5. saturday and sunday will see highs in the 30’s. the cmc and euro ask could a piece of this over the gulf coast form another storm and ride ne???  if the answer is yes east ky could have another snow chance.  in the long range the euro and gfs are in conflict so we’ll stop here for today.

12z cmc look at the last two images , i’m not sold on this solution but we’ll have to keep an eye on it.

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3 Responses to “active part of the week ahead”

  1. tommy Says:

    lets hope we can stay all snow in lex and then the seasonal avg will be broken if we get say 4 inches we will have 20 on the year at my house (5” probably at BGA) lol

  2. firefighter6276 Says:

    tommy have you quit man your page hasnt been updated since feb 3rd man get on the train dude we like to read yours also

  3. Shane Says:

    Wow that’s a heck of a solution there on the GGEM. If that thing verifies, fun and games for snow lovers. Not sold on it yet either Mitch, but an old school style surprise snowfall would be icing on the cake at this point.

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