more snow on the way (update 11:00 pm)

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1. isn’t that a great headline! weeks ago we only had about 4 inches of snow and 20 looked impossibile now we’re @ 13.6 and getting even closer to that 20. snow earlier today left an inch or two over eastern ky, it troubled me that the nws jkl had amounts over 1 inch possibile in spots and did not upgrade to an advisory, it also troubles me how they continue to underestimate nw flow systems untill it’s almost or is to late. my zone was to far west and i should have had just one area of “1-3” snow east instead of those two seperate areas of 1.  gfs hit this one right on, but it fell into it’s model bias of having to much qpf and no other model support thus i tended away from it.

2. our clipper/ disturbance which i have been advertising for days will start to strengthen and move southeast along 1-64 tonight this will delevop periods of snow around mid-morning some of which may reduce visabilites from northwest to southeast, snow will go on through tuesday night eventually winding down to snow showers late tuesday nw winds will also add to the fun temps will be in the 20’s so roads will be snow covered in spots with cold temps we have a shot at 15:1 snow ratios. wednesday will feature these snow showers winding down

most of the models are coming around to the higher qpf shown by the nam and gfs for the last 48 hrs.

nam

 

nam qpf tue am till wed noon.

gfs

gfs qpf

nam snow

update 11 pm

– the 00z runs trended slightly north buit stronger check this out from nws in jkl

.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TONIGHT/…UPDATED

SFC CHART THIS EVENING SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. IN RESPONSE…A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY
REGION…AND POSSIBLY THE COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A
GOOD BIT OF SNOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE FONT WILL KEEP THE SNOW
GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THE 18Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WHICH STRETCHES INTO THE -15 TO -20 DENDRITIC REGION…FAVORING
BETTER PRODUCTION OF SNOW. IN ADDITION…THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE TQ INDEX SHOWS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SO COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSITS THE AREA. WITH
CONVECTION BEING ADDED IN AS AN ADDITIONAL INGREDIENT…SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE ANY
DEVIATION IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF IT FOLLOWS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK…MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD FIND ITSELF WITH
MUCH LESS SNOW AS THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK. AND A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 0Z NAM…OR
AT LEAST WHAT HAS COME IN IS SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WILL LET
THE MID SHIFT SORT THIS OUT ONCE THE GFS HAS COME IN. STAY TUNED.

my take thundersnow is possibile i’m defintely seeing that band of hvy snow crossing northern ky tommorow and then diving into se ky  the rest of us are still in line for numerous snow showers

updated 00z gfs qpf

my updated snow map good for some a downer for a few

kycountymap21

that upgrade to 3-8 may require winter storm warnings.

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6 Responses to “more snow on the way (update 11:00 pm)”

  1. Joseph Says:

    Oh well, more dissapointment for the Somerset area. I guess I should not be surprised.

  2. mitchg Says:

    jkl now has some thundersnow chances. the 00z nam did shift the track north slightly but the ngm and the ruc keep the same track.

  3. Shane Says:

    Yeah, this is going to be one of those situations where 50 miles can make a huge difference in snowfall totals, I’m personally hoping for SE KY to get it cause they still haven’t seen a good snow this winter.

  4. Mitchg Says:

    i think upslope will help them quite a bit in se ky and wv shane.

  5. Amy Says:

    So when is this thing set to arrive??

  6. mitchg Says:

    full update w/video by 11 areas from nicholasville to nw to 1-71 we see a band of hvy snow between 10-11 am this band will continue moving ne. accums will be around an inch.

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