snow maps for the week ahead

by

one may ask why have the models shifted so radically with there solutions on this storm???

A: or at least a theroy

from henry at accuweather

Mt Redoubt had caused the problem. Thursday afternoon, a NOTAM was issued restricted flights around Mt Redoubt which is an active volcano about to blow. 20 Years ago when the volcano blew, a 747 lost it’s engines flying into the ash cloud. You can read the story below. Now you need to understand that aircraft provide weather information along flight route called Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System or ACARS. That information goes into the computer models to help understand the weather aloft. The Mt Redoubt sits right along the Asian flight path between US and Europe flights. So information collected along that flight path will end up in the models.

1. today will see temps spike ahead of the front to the upper 40’s to mid and upper 50’s based on how much snow cover you have. the front will cross tonight and monday with a period of light snow as our storm won’t get going till it’s farther east  temps tonight will fall into the mid 30’s when the precip starts then lows around 30. for the south and southeast ground temps will be to warm for snow to stick and with a mix w/ rain even with qpf around .1 to maybe .15 snow amounts should stay at or under an inch. for areas with snow cover it should have no trouble sticking but qpf will be under .1.

snow map sun night-mon

kycountymap2

12z gfs

nam is less

monday night through wednesday we will be firmly in a nw flow behind the front with several disturbances our clipper in a weeker state will be among them. i expect snow ratios to go up to 20:1 as well. lows will be in the mid 20’s after low to mid 30’s mondayfor highs. temps tuesday and wednesday will stay in the 20’s.

here’s a timeline

– disturbance 1 monday night into  early tuesday.

nam

 

gfs above

– what ends up being our clipper follows as disturbance 2 for tuesday night into wednesday.

nam

gfs above

map disturbance 1 mon night-tue

kycountymap1

map disturbance 2

kycountymap3

even though this is nothing like what we had this stuff can still lead to slick spots on roads and more snow days for the schools kids where i live in woodford county the school district already has 7 snow days and with power still out in spots that number looks to rise as the last day may end up being jul 4 at the rate we’re going for some schools.  a thank you as well to all the electirc workers trying to restore power to the region .

3. by thursday with a snow cover in place as we shift the flow back to one of pacific origin we still have a hard time getting past 32.

4. friday will see sunny skies melting snow and highs in the 40’s.

5. saturday we may hit 50 with waa and clouds increasing

6. flood threat early next week with temps well above 32 and a front which may check up for several days of course this is our thaw period for the month as after the 13th when this passes we go back into a cold pattern.

Advertisements

6 Responses to “snow maps for the week ahead”

  1. mitchg Says:

    2-4 snow looking more likely for tue-wed.

  2. mitchg Says:

    full update coming later today please ingorne the grpahics as they have rest to the new 12z runs.

  3. Amy Says:

    Look forward to the update Mitch!!

  4. Shane Says:

    Keep up the good work Mitch, looking forward to see how yours, mine and Chris’ maps compare.

  5. mitchg Says:

    winter weather adv’s going up for most everyone!!!!!!!!!

  6. coloradotommy Says:

    http://coloradotommy.wordpress.com/2009/02/03/significant-snow-on-the-way/#comment-126
    my call on totals nam and gfs are showing someone getting 1/2” qfp across a narrow strip from ky, hope its me!!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: