superbowl weekend forecast will snow fly to celebrate???

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1. your saturday will see temps reach 32 ice areas and the mid to upper 30’s elsewhere with some afternoon sun some thawing may finally begin. morning fog and freezing fog is possibile with reduced visabilites.

2. sunday will see waa and some more melting of the ice watch out for falling ice and any branches that are down due to ice.  highs will reach 40 ice areas and the mid to upper 40’s elsewhere.  again my game forecast PIT 27, ARZ 21

3.  monday will see some light snow from a storm that looks quite a bit weeker today as a result the track has shifted east these two factors have reduced our snow chances to light snow with an inch or two east and a  inch or so toward lexington.  temps will fall into the 20’s late monday and nw winds will pick up.

latest map

usmap15

 

let’s look at the models the gfs is whacko for the sunday-wednesday timeframe the nam ,euro and cmc are close in line past monday.

nam mon eve

euro  tue am

north-america_ecmwf_1000-500_slpthk_96hr

now let’s jump ahead let’s not focus on our underacheiver over the east but the northern plains

nam tue

the same system a clipper is now located wednesday over the carolinas on the euro.

the gfs is to far south with the clipper and to amplified with the pattern

clipper tue-wed

usmap26

with this clipper snow ratios will be high but like msot clippers this one will be fast moving and mot have lots of moisture.

 

my feb forecast and 14 day outlook are both up!!!!

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7 Responses to “superbowl weekend forecast will snow fly to celebrate???”

  1. snowlover Says:

    So, are you saying that February will be very snow filled? I don’t understand the maps and models. I just know that I love the snow and I want a lot of snow. I guess I should just move to Montana. Thanks for the update.

    • mitchg Says:

      that means we have a 25% chance of above normal snow for the month

      ex: if the normal is 5 inches then we have a 25% of seeing more than that

      the western part of the us has a 10-25% chance of seeing below normal snow

  2. snowlover Says:

    Why the h@ll am I in moderation. I am the only one who posted a comment. Please answer.

    • mitchg Says:

      just a bug in the blog first time someone comments it goes into moderation. you’re alright now. please feel free to comment and welcome

  3. Shane Says:

    Mitch,

    I don’t know what you’re take on it is, but right now I think the GFS is absolute junk, the Upper Air outputs do not match up very well with whats coming down at the surface, monster QPF with no Vorticity just doesn’t happen? Any thoughts on what if any models we should be using right now?

  4. Mitchg Says:

    i used a blend of nam/euro/cmc for my forecast last night.

    the 00z cmc shows my tue-wed clipper very nicely.

  5. mitchg Says:

    forgot to add .5 snow yesturday up to 13.6 for the year

    feb weather week to week
    – i really like what the euro weeklies have for the month
    feb 1-5 cold with light snow chances
    feb 5-12 warmer than normal a couple of 50-60 days not out of the question a couple of rain chances
    feb 12-28 colder than normal not extreme cold with a stormy and hopefully several chances a snowstorm

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