storm recap and what’s coming

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this site provided weather info tuesday to 1,121 of you that nearly doubled the numbers for any one day. for the month we’re at 6,936 visitors. welcome i wish it were under better circumstances.

1. storm recap

my house in versailles

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAwB1sUTG7w

nws lmk site

g-town

lexington

kentucky.com

jessamine.co

snow and ice

house damage

– shelters are still open

– over 30,000 still without power in lex

– most schools closed

– state of emergency in madison.co, water issues for garrad and boyle counties.

we still have a few flood warnings out there

THE KENTUCKY RIVER NEAR RAVENNA…
  THE RED RIVER AT CLAY CITY…
  THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG, the south fork of the ky river and bath county

watch out for high water, turn around don’t drown!

2.  cold night tonight in areas with snow and ice pack lows around 10 there closer to 15-20 for everyone else.  slush will refreeze and black ice will form creating new slick spots any light wind could lead to a few more falling trees and lines.

3. thursday will see the sun come out highs will reach the upper 20’s over the snow areas and into the low 30’s elsewhere. maybe some minor thawing but a lot of ice will stay put. clouds will increase with snow showers moving in at night lows will be near 20.

4. these snow showers will leave an inch or so in some spots on friday but showers is the key word so  not everyone will see them. highs will only reach the upper 20’s. nw wind as well could be a concern for those iced surfaces.

5. saturday will start chilly with lows near 10 and some single digits highs may get to 30 with 32 possibile south.  sun will dominate

6. waa kicks in sunday ahead of the next system highs could get into the 40’s leading to melting. so the weekend doesn’t look that bad and hopefully everyone will  have power for the superbowl if not sooner PIT 27, ARZ 21 is my score.

7. a cold front moves through sunday night with unseasonabily warm air ahead of the front and another arctic cold airmass in behind it a storm should form in the central gulf and track northeast either up the apps on the east coast or somewhere in between.

12z euro

gz_pn_120_0000

gz_pn_144_0000

that’s a hvy snowstorm for us with near “b” condtions. you can figure what the b word is. again that’s only one model.

the new run of the gfs is not catching on to the orgainzation of the storm( convective feedback) and is to supressed as typical 00z gfs runs are.

but still a 2-6 snow this may be quite underdone as this is a further east track than most of the models and ensembles have and the 00z gfs has those convective feedback problems

look what happens by tue am quite an arcitic shock with strong winds in behind the system

yes that’s a accumlating snow for atlanta and flakes mixing in in florida!!

highs monday will be near 32 early falling throughout tuesday to the low 20’s.  i expect the precip to be all snow as thickness values and 850 mb temps fall off much quicker than surface temps. with snow cover single digits easy tuesday night with a shot at 0. wind chill adv and blowing snow may becoming issues.

my first snow map this may be to conserative on totals i took a track in between the two.

usmap14

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7 Responses to “storm recap and what’s coming”

  1. William Says:

    Thanks Mitch for all you’ve done…PRAY for those affected by the storm.

  2. patty Says:

    great report Mitch!

  3. mitchg Says:

    12z gfs to far east 00z euro to far west i like that path i have although i still think my first call may be to conseravitve on snow.

  4. mitchg Says:

    bluegrass airport is closed as a result i have to go to cincinanti and pick my mom up today i will leave around 2:30 and not be back till 7 or so.

    links
    12Z euro check after 2:30

    18z gfs check after 5
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.shtml

  5. Shane Says:

    Mitch, awesome work as usual. This storm has more promise to it than anything we’ve seen around here in years, but comes at horrible time. I hope folks can get a lot fixed this weekend, because if we don’t it’ll be late next week before the clean up could continue.

  6. Natedog in Nicholasville Says:

    MITCH,
    like your wather blog, very nice!!! Keep us posted on this upcoming storm!

  7. mitchg Says:

    i have to agree shane.

    versailles is worse today than yesturday new shelters opening up all over the county. numerous trees and power lines down.

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