worst winter storm since the ice storm of 2003

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if you’re lex and northwest i would suggest following those emergency plans and getting to the grocery store before the 5 o’ clock news. this will compare to that horrific ice storm of 2003 for those areas that don’t reach 32.

model runs

12z gfs

snow breaks out tue am for 1-64 with sleet aroudn danville and richmond and jackosn with ice north of the hal rodgers pkwy.

all areas go weither ice or rain by mid afternoon  total snow by noon tuesday 3-7 inches in the north and 1-64 2-4 sleet in the sleet areas and .25 ice in that zone.

ice north and rain se of jkl through tuesday night

by this time over 1/2 inch ice has fallen just north of 32 line which will be the worst section of the storm less than 1/2 inch falls north of the lex metro.

we  transtion to snow for wednesday with 2-5 new inches of snow on top of the ice lex and nw with 1-3 inches se of jkl where hvy rain and some flooding is occuring.

 

to recap

lex metro just north of the 32 line lou as well with 1/2-1 ice and 6-10 snow and sleet.

that area just north of the 32 line at it’s furthest north point will see the worst weather.

 

12z nam is about the same a hair further north with the 32 line early in the eve

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/model_l.shtml

images our on that site.

 

my thinking lines up the 12z gfs unfortuantely it’s puts my house right in the line of the worst. i’m almost starting to root for the warmer 6z run and wishing i was with mike and mike in tampa.

 

why i think the 12z is correct over the 6z gfs

1. 6z did not take into account this mornings light snow cover over the north( .5 in versailles alomst 1 at uk campus) season total 8.6

2. models have a hard time with low level cold air.

3. the second low was to strong on the 6z

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4 Responses to “worst winter storm since the ice storm of 2003”

  1. coloradotommy Says:

    great work mitch! this is going to be a bigtime player and may be one for the books…currently 21 at my house at noon thinking 34 may be a long shot today unless we get full sunshine which we may….but overall my call is simular to yours with lower snow and ice totals…there is 1/2 liquid that i am having a hard time with dont know if it’ll be ice or snow late tue

  2. mitchg Says:

    live chat till 12:50 my phi class was cancelled so an extra bit of time with my pals!

  3. vinny Says:

    Thanx Mitch..!! as always, great stuff…

    Looking at the radar returns, I’m thinking all this will start, (in Lex) around 2am..??

    What say you…?

  4. marsha Says:

    Mitch, since Morgan Co is in a flood watch now does that mean we want see much ice and snow now?

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