updated forecast: winter storm 09′


several short videos with current condtions and info throughout the storm provided there’s power. if i have not updated in a 12 hr span either comment or new post i am without power.



4 am tue


8 am tue




4 pm






6 am


snow and sleet totals


ice totals



if you’re expecting .5 or higher ice according to this map be prepared for an ice storm with power outages  downed trees

everyone be ready for snow & ice covered roads  diffiult if not impossibile travel and long lines for bread and milk.

schools should be closed for the week. some areas may be without power from wednesday into the weekend.

as you can see by the timeline the snow/sleet comes in two waves one early tue the other wed am on the backside.

the area just north of gurthest north the 32 line gets is in the .5-1 ice area thus the worst of the storm should be here.

flooding will be an issue in areas that mainly see rain with a flood watch up se.

a main concern of mine is hvy wet snow on top of ice accumlating on power lines thundersnow and ice is also possibile.


42 Responses to “updated forecast: winter storm 09′”

  1. mitchg Says:

    have an energency kit for both your car and house ready.

  2. D. Smith Says:

    Son, I absolutely love your thinking and I think it’s safe to say Vinny will too.

  3. mitchg Says:


  4. Samantha Says:

    Thanks Mitch. I kinda hope your a little off on those ice totals you got me getting hammered.

  5. BubbaG Says:

    Ewwwwww! 🙂 Well, I am smiling now, but might not be tomorrow, here’s another from Richmond KY just in case: 🙂

  6. Strummer Says:

    Mitch, you do such a great job!

    Thank you so much for this information. It is not what I want to see – I have family who must travel on the roads and this scares me for them. We lived a week without electricity during the last ice storm – this one scares me because we know what it could be like!

    Please keep updating. Thank you for your time and dedication!

  7. rolo Says:

    enjoy ur take mitch. ty and keep the vids coming.

  8. Strummer Says:

    Hey Rolo! Do you ever post on TG’s blog? I miss reading your comments. I always appreciated the way you looked at the
    human side of these storms. If we get all this ice that is predicted, lots of people and animals are going to be hurting by the time this mess is done with us.

  9. mitchg Says:

    sref (the short range ensembles ) are trying to keep temps below 32 further south for areas such as richmond and maybe even jackson.

  10. mitchg Says:

    update on the ice totals another max of over 1 to perhaps 2 inches of ice across western ky. paucah expecting an ice storm similar to 2003 in lexington.

  11. Amy Says:

    …..sref (the short range ensembles ) are trying to keep temps below 32 further south for areas such as richmond and maybe even jackson.

    So Mitch, does that mean more snow and less ice threat for Richmond?

  12. coloradotommy Says:

    mitch twc calling 6-12 how bout that? hmm cantore in paducah

  13. MikeM Says:

    Like it or not I’ll be working tommorrow at Central baptist. Plan on taking gas cans for gas for the generator and kerosene for the heaters. 2 items left over from the ice storm of 03. Remember if we lose electric the gas stations can’t pump gas. Like the work you put in your blog.

  14. mitchg Says:

    mikem: good thought. make sure the gas tanks are full.

    amy: more ice of over 1/2 inch may even be further south

  15. MikeM Says:

    Mitch, are you still sticking with your 6-10 estimtes for our area. Also anything to the southerly push some are speaking of?

  16. mitchg Says:

    no changes after looking at the 00z nam.

  17. mitchg Says:

    one thing i just thought of if your north of tommy’s 32 line turn your heat up so if you loose power it will take a little longer for your house to cool off.

  18. mitchg Says:

    light snow at ownesboro.

  19. glen Says:

    What does it look like for us folks in Harrison County?

  20. mitchg Says:

    gfs adding new wrinkle this is good news for you folks se for snow!!!!

  21. mitchg Says:

    can se folks like pikevile and somerset still get 3-6 maybe 8?????

  22. Joseph Says:

    Mitch how does that new wrinkle in the GFS correspond with the Somerset area in regards to snow?

  23. Joseph Says:

    I think you just answered my question!

  24. mitchg Says:

    i’m keeping those maps the same for now BUT if tyhe 06z gfs can back up the 00z i will shift those 3-6 and 6-10 further se.

  25. Tammy Says:

    What’s the new wrinkle?! More details, please…especially if it’s good news for us snow lovers. After reading your update, I brought firewood in, gathered flashlights and matches and am getting prepared for a possible power outage. It’s always better to be safe than sorry. Thanks!

  26. mitchg Says:

    if you were a first time commenter you’re comments are now up. welcome to the blog!!!

  27. mitchg Says:

    glen i put you in the bullseye for 8-12 with .5-1 ice you may be right on the front lines.

  28. mitchg Says:

    visitors are numerous to the site welcome i wish it we’re better circumstances.

  29. D. Smith Says:

    Think about all the people out there that don’t blog therefore they have no idea what their in for. MG you do a great job.

    I’m curious, are you studying meteorology? If you are you’re going h

  30. D. Smith Says:

    my laptop likes to post and send emails before I’m finished.

    I was going to say you’re lucky to do something you luv.

  31. Joseph Says:

    Guy on 36 has some freezing rain here then pretty much rain with less than an inch THRU Wednesday.

  32. Joseph Says:

    That is less than in inch of snow Somerset and south.

  33. Joseph Says:

    BM on 18 has a more sw to ne prediction of 8-12 Bowling Green to Louisvillle, then 4-8 say Glasgow to Lexington

  34. Joseph Says:

    I’m not contradicting you Mitch just mentioning for comparison.

  35. mitchg Says:

    D.Smith: yes, i’m a senior at uk this term in physical geography then next year i plan on going to grad school to major in physical geo and meteo.

    joseph: those news reports had not seen the new data since it came in at 10:45 pm. the back edge even with the older forecast should get all areas over 2 inches.

    two other notes
    1. snow showers could friday could put down a couple inches more of snow
    2. winter storm sunday and monday?? not near the qpf of this one though.

  36. mitchg Says:

    joseph thanks for putting them on there.

  37. mitchg Says:

    icy mix of sleet and frz rain to start i’ll update with a comment around 4:30 am then regular updates starting 8 or 9am . no classes tommorow so updates will be fast and furoius provided there power in versailles.

  38. mitchg Says:

    4:30 am update

    hvy mix of snow sleet and ice going back and forth which is widepread roads are covered. i think nws is underdoing totals.

    back to bed!

  39. Mitchg Says:

    9:30 update
    the 12z nam brings the 32 line north to where we saw it yesturday am on the models later on tonight i’m not buying it but this may be our best hope to avoid an ice storm. the backend still looks good for another batch of hvy snow.

  40. coloradotommy Says:

    me either, low in texas actually developed about 20-30 miles further south than anticipated, that isnt helping our chances of getting above 32

  41. Joseph Says:

    Mitch any update on snow potential for the Somerset area for late tonight into tomorrow? Thanks for the information!

  42. mitchg Says:

    gfs tries to warm things above 32 as well the sref keeps everything below 32.

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