Archive for August, 2008

quick mid week update

August 19, 2008

1. wednesday through saturday should see mostly sunny skies with mid to upper 80’s maybe 90 for highs a disturbance will taunt us to the west only throwing in a small storm chance saturday thanks in part to a strong east coast ridge

2. this ridge will also have it’s affect on tropical storm fay which crossed florida and is heading into the atlantic poised to become a hurricane and due to the ridge is still expected to make a west turn as the trough has lifted i’m still loking for a path similar than yesturday but a little further south as the ridge looks to become supper dupper strong. a cold front should be enough to drag this thing north around sunday or so. fay and the front could stall overhead could is the key word, something to watch.  the excessive rainfall area is the same but the areas in two circles of gray are the highlighted threats for excessive rains one over se ga,fl where 20 inches could fall. the second is over us if the front and fay work with each other for a few days overhead. each L is for 24 hrs, sat southern ga sun-west cen tn mon/tue- ky.  a important note is many of the models still have fay stalling well to our south not yet picking up on an approching front. for now i’ll leave the forecast in point 1 and we’ll just watch fay’s movements and the models.

updated track

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Fay to zig zag

August 18, 2008

1. our weather through thursday will be fair without highs in the mid to upper 80’s. during this time fay will hit near tampa however the change is for that hook i mentioned to occur taking fay out into the atlantic. 99/100 times this system would go bye bye however a strong mid-atlantic ridge will shift fay back to the west to the start the zig-zagging. some models take this system back into the gulf while other stall it in the southeast. however quite a few of them still having fay impacting the region but at different times. the GFS and euro have early next week rains while the gdfl has a friday night washout.

my updated path

– the hook after passage over florida  by thursday then a turn northwest due to the ridge  for friday and saturday and then interaction with a front sunday turning it NE. each L is for a 24 hr period. intensity should decrease to about 40 mph over land then perhaps up to a cat 2 by it’ second landfall.

notice there is still a risk for excessive rainfall ne florida into eastern ga could have over 10 inches of rain.

the week ahead hangs in the balance

August 17, 2008

why?? very easy answer if you’ve read the last post or two, FAY.

our dry weather pattern through august will continue through wednesday highs will be into the mid to upper 80’s. rainfall deficits will continue to grow for the month but something could cancel out the monthly deficit if things work out right.

thursday will see an increase in clouds from an approaching disturbance and fay

right now the hrricane models have us singing in the rain on the 18z runs that have just come in, most of the guidence is close to the nhc track and the hurricane special models. This is where my thinking lies as well similar to yesturday the 18z NAM has also joined in on the fun. those still thinking an east turn are accuweather and the euro model.  so with a decent west shift today my track has shifted west to some extent. this west shift in the models can be traced to fay not turning yet however a northerly motion should pick up soon. once fay gets into the gulf it should ramp up to a cat 2. the keys have been evacuated, the main landfall point should be the FL panhandle.

hurricane model A

thursday afternoon

thursday early eve

that’s a solid 1-3 rain for all and my lawn is wet!

Hurricane model B

thursday afternoon

thursday night

we all get rain with those east of lexington getting in on the 1-3 inch amounts.

– wind should not be a concern as it will have been over land for a while.

my updated track

we’re in the gray for excessive rainfall potential. I think any rain would be benifical not to excessive at this time.

nhc track

I’m keeping saturday dry for now for my dad’s b-day party it’s at big springs park in versailles from 5-7 good chance to meet me I’ll be wearing a big dog t-shirt.

another front approaches next sunday and monday. hot end to aug is likely.

fay update

August 16, 2008

– another fay update

– here is my updated track THE MODELS WILL SHIFT AND SHIFT BACK THEN SHIFT INTO TEXAS THEN TO SIBERIA DON’T BUY EVERY RUN TO RUN CHANGE. right now about 25% of the guidence now takes fay east back off the SE coast while 60% goes up the florida west coast. the other 15% tracks fay near mobile bay in which case friday is a washout with 2-4 inches of rain.  however i have moved things a little east to account for that 25% which includes the EURO and hurricane models.

nhc track

accuweather track

my track

the gray area is at risk for excessive rainfall from fay and will change as the track changes. notice that includes far eastern ky.

what does that mean for us?

still calm with mid 80’s thorugh wednesday

mostly cloudy with scatt storms thu/fri mid 80’s storms end sat. there will also be a disturbance moving through to aid chances.

Fay update and KY weather history

August 15, 2008

– tropical storm fay has now formed near hispanola. over the next several days a west to northwest track should continue. the center has formed further south after having to get things figured out with only 1 center now to be classified a storm. land interaction will keep things in check untill monday. After monday a more northerly trend should start after a ridge moves east off the US east coast. I’m not seeing much besides a slight week trough to turn fay east and out to sea, which is not likely. there should be prime conditions in place, warm water and low shear will promote strengthining when it is over water any interaction with florida would keep things in check more than what my updated track and intensity has.

– I generally went the near the middle of the guidence for the track but maybe slightly further west given the storm’s repostioning itself further south and that model guidance has trended west today. the nogaps was west near new orleans the NAM still hugs the florida east coast but is shifting west. the first L is on monday and each L is 24 hrs later. the L near somerset is for SAT Aug 23.

what does that mean for us ?( as the track changes drastically so will this answer)

– still calm  and mild august weather through wednesday mid 80’s for highs and sunny days.

– thursday would see an increase in clouds

– friday would feature storm chances from an approaching week disturbance from texas and fay

– storms would be likely by late friday into next sunday with tropical downpours eastern ky would possibily get in on a steady rain next saturday

– note a track further east from us would reduce storm chances a lot, westward more rain would be likely further west.

18Z GFS aug 23

nhc track

there interaction with land track a little further west would keep the strength more in check the difference between a strong 2 with my track and a 70 mph system with there’s.

I’ll update each day with a post like this and in the comments section as info comes in. things could or could not get interesting around here by late week.

KY WEATHER HISTORY PART 2 ” WINTER”

– cold was in part 1 now off to the side.

– that leaves snow and ice

– march 7-10 1960 bowling green got 27 inches of snow and lexington got 13 inches. A bus carrying WKU folks got stranded in drifts outside of munfordsville.

– the blizzard of 1993 was a big one for east ky and most of the eastern US often called the storm of the century. interstates were closed and the national guard called in.

– the winter of 77-78 leads the way in snow where la grange had a depth of 31 inches on Jan 20.

– football and snow, possibly oct 1925 had 5-6 inches of snow, there was also a halloween snow several years ago.

– a may snowfall even occured on may 20 where recorded snow was 6 inches deep and the tabbaco planted. kids a snow day on may 20. that would not have excitied me

the big finale for part 2, the ice storm of 2003 which knocked power and trees all over the bluegrass

– schools closed for one week, no power for a week

– numerous trees down ice 2 inches thick in spots

I will add photos and a more meteorogical aspect to things after completing the series. part 1 is off to the side of the blog.