holiday weekend forecast ( updated)

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1. this forecast will be through monday the week ahead forecast will be monday instead of sunday this week with the holiday. the next schedule change is not untill thanksgiving week.

a whole lot to go over with football underway in the bluegrass and a lot of other things things going on this weekend.

high school sports have started up this weekend I’ll throw out some games and weather conditions for a few sports outdoor of course. 

high school football

Washington.co@ Lincoln.co  late afternoon storms ending by gametime  83 sw wind 4 mph.

Boone co @ Scott.co  gradual clearing, storms ending 40% chance lightning between 7-8 77 w wind near 5 mph.

Jackson co @ Powell.co scattered storms 50% chance lightning between 7:30-9:30 84 sw wind 6 mph.

i can already see that helecopter flying around the bluegrass already. I’ll play it by year with the high school games and see how it works. let me know your favorite team so i can post accordingly. I will try to get every area of the bluegrass.

holiday destinations  (we’ll get to louisville later) these are cities i think my auidence would go i’m probably way off but here’s a list

– Gatlinburg,Tn fri: fair 65/86  sat: am shower 66/83 sun: fair 65/86 mon: fair  65/87

– Chicago,Ill  fri: clearing 63/80 sat: sunny 57/82 sun: sunny 63/84 mon: sunny 66/88

– Nashville, TN fri: scatt strosm late (40%) 65/88 sat: fair 64/86 sun: fair 66/88 mon: fair 66/88

– Orlando, Fl fri-mon: scatt afternoon storms (40%) 69/89

UK VS UL GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  OH C-A-T-S  CATS CATS CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun 3:30 sunny 86 s wind at 3 mph.

score for fun only: UK 21, UL 20 F  my season pick is for a 5-7 record for the cats, more motivation to try and get to the music city bowl.

now on to our usual routine

1. today will feature clearing skies as we make it into the mid 80’s west and near 80 east where clouds will hang on longer with some more drizzle.

2. a week cold front will move through friday afternoon and evening with a storm or two best chances NW areas 4-6 then SE by 8-10 PM. the majority of the region should stay dry. However breif downpours and lightning are possible. highs will be in the mid 80’s. Update: storms have formed along 1-65 as of 4 pm will move thorugh lexington around 5 then east into the evening hours.

3. we clear out for saturday and sunday which should be mostly sunny with mid 80’s for highs little weather impact on UK/UL.

4. labor day looks great as well for one last blast of summer fun mid to upper 80’s and mostly sunny.

5. the bad news is not much signficant rain in sight for several days adding to the summer shortage. what might help us is more tropical mositure as things are heating up big time!!!! one thing that is left out of tropical outlooks including mine is that tropical systems can help big time with our deficits but they  destroy and kill some to get here. now would be a good time to hope/prey ( if you belive along those lines) for little death and destruction these next couple of active weeks as the peek of hurricane season is here.

tropical update

1. gustav ( please correct if any spelling errors occur i had peen writing gustov)

 

– my thinking is that gustav moves west then makes a nw turn into the cent gulf partly due to this weekend’s week front. most of the data is tightly clustered for this early in the forecast. I agree with the NHC’s track for now as it is a good mean of data i have to look at. but i decided to extend the track a few days to south of little rock by thu near evansville IN fri and pittsburgh Pa for sat, I’m thinking the next front turns it NE. So again tropical rains are possibilty after gustov hits louisana as a major hurricane since there will be little shear and very warm water.  

Hanna the new kid on the block

should continue to drift nw than w into the carribean by the end of the holiday weekend. once again condtions are favorable for another hurricane to form. My thinking is Hanna is a threat to the florida by late next week and then hook out to sea with no impact on ky getting picked up by that same front.

– there even two other waves trying to form into storms for the 10-20 day period.

have a great holiday weekend, my only holiday for the term untill thanksgiving is this weekend so hopefully i will enjoy it.

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12 Responses to “holiday weekend forecast ( updated)”

  1. William Says:

    Thanks Mitch for the update…have a GREAT Labor Day weekend. 🙂

  2. pattty Says:

    Mitch……….You continue to improve your blog. The graphics look great! How is school?

  3. mitchg Says:

    that trough which is supposed to cary those hurricanes away is looking weeker and weeker. hopefully things will not get as wild as the 12z euro.

  4. beachfan Says:

    Mitch,
    What exactly happens when the trough becomes weaker and weaker? I am no expert, but I assume that it would not carry the hurricanes away?
    I have a gut feeling that Gustav will be a Cat 4…I hope I am so wrong.
    Let’s pray for people along the gulf……….

  5. mitchg Says:

    no beachfan the trough will not be that strong to deflect hannah into the carlionas, FL looks more likely now and the weeker trough will keep gustov along the gulf coast a little longer.

  6. mitchg Says:

    storms stretching from cincy to lawrenceburg to bowling green will continue to drift east and southeast between 5:30 and 7:30. games near the first two listed may have lightning at the start before clearing. storms should move east of 1-75 after 7pm.

  7. pattty Says:

    Mitch, It looks like we’re only gonna get a few drops of rain out of this! On radar an hour ago it looked like a sure thing. What gives?

  8. mitchg Says:

    storms were hit and miss you have good luck if you got one yesturday.

    school started wed, thanks for asking, it’s good so far patty.

    gustav is now a very dangerous cat 4 hurricane it went from a 3 to 4 during my trip to the UK arberum(sp) today for an assignment. it’s hot out there don’t forget water like i did if outside.

  9. mitchg Says:

    my lastest thinking is that gustov goes nw and comes in west of new orleans late mon then slows up a bit due to more strong ridging to the north and then NE into the ohio valley by friday. so decent shot of of rain for fri as of now.

    hanna moves west to the sw coast of FL then northeast to to the panhandle and then staying east of the apps for next weekend, still would be a rain chance for east ky.

    besides the tropics, 85-90 each day with sun as ridging continues to dominate for the next week. very similar to recent weeks.

  10. patty Says:

    They’re saying Gustav landfall around 7:00 AM Monday not. It’s coming in earlier than first expected. I hope everyone has evacuated by now.

  11. mitchg Says:

    like the NHC path of gustav through tuesday afterwards is where my disagreement begins

    – cat 3 at landfall
    – storm surge into new orleans will be very high but not as bad as katrina
    – hurricane force from new orleans to cent LA coastline then inland about 50 mi
    – hvy rain east texas, arkansas, mississppi through tuesday.
    – scattered tornadoes mobile, jackson ms, new orleans again.

    weekly forecast will be issued on mon due to the holiday weekend.

    about the CATS D!!!!

  12. patty Says:

    Thanks Mitch! Let’s hope there’s minor damage from Gustav. It came in as a cat. 2 but it’s a very slow mover. There’s bound to be a lot of flooding. When do you think we’ll hear from all those refineries

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