Fall Forecast

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I’ll leave the summer grade up for a few more days. My fall term at UK starts wednesday so what better day to post a fall forecast than the day before.

Fall forecast indicators

– ridge has been in place to our north making for very dry condtions this month this feature has moved out but the soil is very dry with the usually dry fall months coming.

– the arctic is cooler than usual for this time of year, the CFS model ( seasonal) also has several cool early cool blasts

– the heat ridge will slaken off into the fall but still be centered over the rocky mtns.

– tropical activity should be above normal

forecast

jet stream

Precip B=Below norm A= Above norm N= Near norm

temps

for us

temps: below normal

precip: below normal

date of first frost: oct 12

date of first freeze: oct 26

first flakes of s-n-o-w !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  nov 3

this outlook is for aug 26-nov 30. dec is technically fall so a little preview

– colder than norm with more precip as we try and head out of a slight drought.  

winter thoughts

farmers alamnac: cold and snowy

new farmers almanac: cold wet snowy windy and wild. 

analog years- 2 cold with avg snow 1- mild

CFS- frequent changes between very cold and very mild, several big storms

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4 Responses to “Fall Forecast”

  1. William Says:

    Thanks Mitch…it is going to be a VERY interesting winter.

  2. mitchg Says:

    like the fay forecast i put out yesturday, sharp cutoff on the western edge with totals. most areas east of 1-75 should get 2 inches in the next 24 hr.

    gustov likely to be a cat 4+ hurricane over the gulf this weekend.

  3. Mitchg Says:

    the cutoff will be from maysville to winchester to casey.co 1-3 inches east little new rain west of this line.

  4. patty Says:

    Thanks Mitch!

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