this is the forecast for the center of the storm from NHC, by monday a plume of moisture should leave IDA and head into the central gulf coast states.
let’s track that plume of moisture on the models. you can see a week front moving in from the nw as well which will deflect this plume at some point to the NE. there will also be a zone of subsidence, sinking air between the front and the leftovers of IDA.
NAM mon pm
nam tue am
nam tue pm
gfs mon pm
gfs tue am
gfs tue pm
the upper level set-up is a quite a bit different with both of these models but the trend has been further west and north with each run in terms of moisture.
my map on rain coverage for tuesday we could see a range from hvy tropical rains that could lead to some minor flooding to just scattered showers from the front. Again there will also be a zone of subsidence, dryer air as well in this set-up.
any changes in expected track will change this map.
November 8, 2009 at 1:03 pm |
time to buckle up for Ida wind, rain and maybe even high elevation snows??? I’ll update very early tommorow morning for most of you, after the Eagles game.