update and rant

first to the complaint

.4 in sleet in versailles this getting to ready outrageous there’s been no winter weather adv for the counties which have been under that band for the past few hours. roads, driveways and all surfaces are now ice covered and it is very slick. and they can see the band has moved very little in the past few hours i’m sure they can see this at lmk

here’s there terminology for adv’s
 this is would require a sleet adv.
 Issued for expected sleet accumulations of less than 1/2 inch.

WE ALREADY AHVE THAT IN THE AREAS UNDER THE BAND

there terminology for a winter weather adv
Used when a mixture of precipitation is expected such as snow, sleet, and freezing rain or freezing drizzle, but will not reach warning criteria.

MOST OF US HAVE SEEN THAT

get with it lmk.

now look again at the defintion for a winter weather adv and what this says

…PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW…

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING…WITH THE MIX BECOMING ALL
SNOW AFTER 7 PM EST.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S AND SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO COVER ROADWAYS…RESULTING IN SLICK HIGHWAYS THAT ARE NOT
TREATED. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TO LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS
REGION WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDEST AND SNOW WILL BE MODERATELY HEAVY
AT TIMES.

outrages.

the frankfort, lexington, dry ridge and shelbyville will see periods of snow and sleet for the next few hours with around an inch of snow and sleet accumlation if not a bit more roads will become very slick and hazordus further east rain will change to sleet and snow with a couple inches of accumlation through noon sunday.

radar

let’s look at the RUC

9pm

11 pm

1 am

2 am

4 am

updated map  snow/sleet

ice accums

as you can see frz rain is more of a concern, surfaces and roads will become very slick extra caution is advised, snow amounts still manily unchanged.

storm underway

precip has broken out for areas south of danville richmond and jackson in the form of a cold rain this sheild will very very slowly work north and expand over all areas south of 1-64 this afternoon the combination of evap and  dynamical cooling will allow the precip to change to ice and snow even in this very late stage we’re seeing model disagreement. the ice and snow willcover the grass and make roads slick by the evening as i said this will be a wait and see game a chace for the rapid update model (RUC) to shine which updates every hour. this model is trying to bring a bit more snow to the lex area than i what i have and making the chaeover quick for all of us. the 06z gfs has ice this afternoon for most of cent ky with a changeover to snow from rain over east ky with a few inches for most already in the snow forecast. the nam had a blimp on the 00z run it’s 12z run intialized the precip sheild a tad south but it brings in hvy precip this afternoon and eve east of lex with a slower changeover. winter weather adv’s are up for camplesville, danville, london, jackson and pikeville.  as for the models my pick of the gfs appears to be ok looking at the nws jkl discussion as it is best handling the dynamical cooling aspect of the storm.

i’m sticking with the gfs on it’s 12z run and it matches up well with the ruc though the ruc is faster to cool us at 850 mb. although it’s too slow cooling us off at 850 mb. 12z nam not far off just a touch se

UPDATED CALL

quick eve update

tommorow we should see precip break out over southern ky and merging with upper level energy diving in from the nw this will likley result in periods of rain, ice and snow sat pm changing to snow by sat night. I expect some slick travel later tommorow due to snow and ice accumlations. at first snow will only accumulate on grass but roads will become slippery as temps fall during the day from near 32-36 to the mid and upper 20’s. ratios should near 10:1 but it will be a hvy wet snow. there however is little room for error as 20 miles could make the diffference and i still do expect another nw correction from the models tonight though  not as big as we have seen today.

i must apolgize for last night my noaa radio did go off around 4:30-5 for the storms which strengthed late at night which is rare, a few warnings were issued. the spc also dropped the ball with the lack of watches in our area.

timeline

sat pm

sat eve

by mid eve the rest of you change to snow

FIRST CALL ON TOTALS

keep in mind a light iceing is also possibile.

UPDATED CALL

i went with the 00z gfs it’s not as agressive as the sref or dry like the nam.

after seeing that my map stays the same.

model madness (updated)

1.tonight the cold front will come through the area with showers and storms ahead of it late tonight some of these may produce gusty winds and small hail along with hvy downpours and lightning. lows tonight and highs tommorow will be near 50 with falling temps into the upper 30’s as the flow shifts from sw to n. friday night we’ll awaiting the next storm .

 

SHORT TERM UPDATE

- severe storms are starting to weeken well to our west this evening it does look like we will get  a band of gusty showers with thunder. here are some special weather statements discussing the wind.

…MORE STRONG WINDS…

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT…WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA…NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH THERE.

TRAVELERS WILL FIND NAVIGATING THROUGH THE STRONG WINDS LATE
TONIGHT DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST INTERSTATES…BECAUSE OF CROSS WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION…VISIT YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

…GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT…

SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS AND ALONG
THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS…ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING
ALONG EAST WEST ROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION…YOU CAN VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY

2.  model madness is the key for the weekend as each model run has it’s own solution with regards to phasing of our jigsaw pieces the track of the low and thermal profiles. right now we could be in line for a mix of precip sat and snow sat night, the more important question is qpf amounts, the amount of precip that falls. let’s look at the nam 12  and 18z from thursday

each model has there own say and it gets to be one big blur, the 12z gfs has a snowstorm for myrtle beach, SC while the 18z nam brings a wintery mess to us. the most extreme was the 00z euro cutting the low off in the apps and dumping snow on us.  

my updated thinking

light blue- 0-30% ch 4 inch snow

med blue- 20-50% ch 4 in snow

dark blue 35-70% ch 4 in snow, 0-20% ch 8 in snow or more

LONG TERM UPDATE

the new model runs suggest my thinking that they will correct west is turing out to be true. check out the 00z nam for the weekend  thermal profiles are also cooler, meaning all snow if not mostly snow.

 

 

NGM ( the furthest west likely to far west)

SREF avg qpf for late sat into sun

but the gfs says not so fast

we still have some waiting to do.

now the fun begins

great news for you all no  more exams for a while which means more weather coverage as we’re nearing two big weather events.

for thursday we’ll see a nice day with highs near 60 but during the night showers and storms ahead of a cold front possibliy even some  small squall lines will cross the area with hvy rain, gusty winds and a hail threat.  this front will switch the flow from sw to nw with early highs friday near 50 and clearing.

nam radar for thu eve and fri am

spc outlook

day 1 outlook ( for those who see this thu)

day 2 outlook ( if you see this wed night or early thu am)

again gusty winds and small hail are possibile thu night make sure the noaa weather radios are set.

models are slowly trending toward a big time east coast storm

nam still not connecting the pieces

but…  the merger does occur later on producing a big snow for wv northward on this run

the gfs is trending toward a big time snowstorm for us this run shows the potential of this storm going back to my jigsaw puzzle from yesturday with 3 pieces through 72 hrs the gfs merges these perfectly.

notice a stronger low over texas pulling the energy along the front back to the west and pulling in the piece of energy over the plains into mix quicker, more rapid phasing with all three pieces.

fri eve

sat am

sat pm

after 72 hrs it’s a usual garbage run, but if what’s it showing through 72 hrs holds up we’re in line for several inches of snow here. the euro has also gone to a stronger storm as well temps may start near 32 early sat then fall during the day with increasing nw winds. sunday will likely see the continued storm threat with temps below 32.

highs monday and tuesday of next week should be in the mid 30’s there might be another clipper for mid week which would mean a quick goodbye to the 70’s i have on the 14 day but i’ll keep the 14 day the same for now.

 

now on to my thoughts as promised, i think we have answered there will be a storm.  with a phasing storm like this the trend in the models should be west over east. however a strong high over the great lakes should prevent this from going straight up the apps on our side.

black- slim chance for a snowstorm of 4 inches +

blue- chance at same thing

purple- good chance at same thing with a slight chance of 10 inches of snow.

again this is how i see it now the models have flipped floped so many times on this one but if the phasing  does occur and the models see it i think there will be a western correction to the track. stay tuned on this one.