Short term: Weekend forecast

I’m back from AMS. A great learning experience and I’d never thought I would see so many meteorologists in one building before.  My thinking on Sunday’s severe is the instability did not have enough time to advect into the region to make it a more significant event. overall after that the forecast last week went wrong and that’s why forecast thought should be updated every few days at least.

1. Friday with the departing system we’ll have slowly clearing skies after starting out in the mid 30′s highs should range from the low to upper 40′s, maybe 50 south. No fog as winds will be from 5-10 mph.

2. Saturday a week front will pass through the region I suspect WAA ahead of the front keeps temps up in the low to upper 30′s Saturday morning. A week front may bring a very small chance of light rain or flurries with mostly cloudy skies  as well. Highs will be from 40-45. Windier conditions are expected.

3. Sunday a shortwave tracks north of the Ohio river. This increases clouds once again perhaps bringing a rain or snow shower for northern and eastern KY Lows will range from the mid 20′s north to 30 south with highs in the 40′s.

4. read below for a bleak long range.

Long term: least snowiest calendar winter ( Jul-Jun) becoming more likely at Lexington

If we make to June without an addtional inch of snow this year at lexington it will be the least snowiest winter/spring/fall season on record. The new euro weeklies show this to be very likely through the last week of feburary. I look at it and it says the same thing as last week.

- 4 or 5 mild days a few in the 60′s then a few days of normal before the next warm-up. rain and severe storms should be common with tracks well to our north

- doesn’t look like much stratospheric warming now either which helped some in Jan.

- Overall teleconnection pattern doesn’t show any change to winter

- MJO looks very unfavorable the next 2 weeks.

Overall this makes the chances of having a seasonal total of snow by the end of June under 2.1 inches at bluegrass airport more likely,we’re at 1.1 inches now.

Covington area to see ice storm

Soundings have trended higher with QPF and slightly colder as well. I expect the 32 degree line to have a hard time pushing through far northern Kentucky. Ice amounts will gradually decrease the further south one heads with temperatures staying above 32 along I-64. Ice will accumulate to various surfaces including trees and power lines. Looking at the soundings and current dewpoints I’m not sold the precipitation may fall only as freezing rain or rain. In fact sleet may fall for several hours as well across the Covington region. For now expect ice and sleet accumulation under 1/4 inch. If all ice then 1/4 of accumulation could occur. Winter storm warnings and advisories have been issued for northern KY.

Long week ahead while I’m Gone

This is a long forecast given i will be in New Orleans from Saturday through Wednesday for the AMS conference. This means I will not be able to update the several threats this forecast has.

Here is a link to the AMS conference http://annual.ametsoc.org/2012/

Locally there will be a weather conference in February @ the Holiday Inn in Bowling Green. I hope to meet some of you there. A great chance to learn all about weather and meet meteorologists in the region!

http://kyem.ky.gov/Pages/default.aspx

Let’s get to the weather

1. A major bust by almost all meteorologists out there, even had to slap myself silly after missing this one. It only takes a small amount of instability with lots of shear to make a situation very threating. Should have been watching the soundings closer. No watches were issued by the SPC this has happened many times in recent months including my time at NWS-PHL. Severe reports keep coming in and no watch is issued. UMM…..

2. Friday will see a boundary over our region which will lead to dramatically different temps from north to south. Lows will be around 20 in the north and near 30 in the south. Highs Friday in the south may make the low 50′s while only around 30 in the Covington area. Southwest winds will also increase from 10-20 MPH. A low pressure system will track across the region Friday night bringing moisture with it interacting with the boundary and producing light rain known as isentropic lift. Friday night temperatures should rise into the low and mid 50′s south ranging to low and mid 30′s for the north Friday night. Far northern Kentucky may see light freezing rain for a few hours Friday night and this may accumulate under 1/10 th of an inch before changing to rain. The GFS keeps it all freezing rain while the warmer NAM has a very quick change to rain. Overall feel middle ground is good here. Some elevated thunder is possible as well but any instability should stay south of the region.

3. temperatures Saturday are in the 40′s south and 20′s and 30′s north. The precip may end as freezing drizzle for northern and northwestern parts of the region, CVG and LOU. Skies will remain cloudy with lighter winds.

4. Sunday another surge of Warm air advection WAA  will bring much warmer weather and south to southwest winds at 20-30 mph. lows will start out in the 30′s maybe low 40′s south with highs in the 60′s for most perhaps some 50′s north. Sunday night a strong cold front should move through with rising temps once again at night. The overall trough will be negative tilted, a strong LLJ will also be present. An impressive vort max should be moving just to the west of the region as well.

A look at the 300 mb jet notice a nice piece of jet energy moving in

A look at the soundings shows the LLJ to be impressive from 60-80 KTS, helicity values should be the roof again a key indicator of updrafts needed for storm rotation. sufficient instability appears to be present at this time for another severe weather event either Sunday night or Monday morning.

A squall line of thunderstorms should bring widespread severe weather sometime Sunday night or Monday morning with the frontal passage. High public impact. I strongly disagree with the SPC that this is a non event. That type of talk last time lead to a very bad forecast day there Tuesday. Apologies for not being able to post warnings in advance due to my absence.

5. Monday should clear out a bit lows will be in the 30′s with highs in the 30′s and 40′s.  Tuesday and Wednesday I’m keeping dry with highs in the 40′s maybe low 50′s and lows in the 30′s to maybe around 40 in the south.

6. the long range euro which looked promising for the first half of feb has been replaced by record warmth.

More storm recap Thursday update

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jan17_2012

Storm recap Above thanks to NWS LMK!  Great job getting the damage surveys done!

I will update on thursday real quick now. Then tommorow I’ll post my forecast from Friday through Thursday of next week.

A cold front will move west to east across the region with a chance for light rain and snow showers. Lows will be in the mid 20′s with highs in the 40′s, low north and upper south.

Long term models are backing off the extreme warmth some and teleconnections are showing a more favorable pattern for snow and cold once Feb arrives.