look at this week

1. Your Tuesday will feature Ida a future nor’easter moving through the SE us bringing clouds into the region, areas SE of a Bowling Green to Ashland line with highs in the 60’s to a few low 70’s.

2. Wednesday the clouds will slowly depart with highs from the mid 50’s to low 60’s after the passage of a weak cold front.

3. Thursday should be a nice day across the region with highs into the 60’s and sunny skies after starting off in the upper 40’s.

4. Another winner for a weekend should be coming mild and sunny!!!!

5. The 14 day forecast is now updated.

6. The cold i had thought may start to show up by thanksgiving will be delayed as the core of the arctic cold is now over the far east (Asia) and will have to go around a ridge over Canada slowly over the next month. This means a Cold December may be in the cards, with the emphasis on the second half of the month after a warmer than normal Nov.

DEC CFS map

drier ida solution

The 12z models have continued a drying trend for us keeping Ida along the gulf coast, this means just a small shower chance tuesday with overcast skies. I’ll have a full update on this the 14 day forecast and updated thoughts to end Nov later tonight. sorry about the delayed update.

quick IDA update

this is the forecast for the center of the storm from NHC, by monday a plume of moisture should leave IDA and head into the central gulf coast states.

let’s track that plume of moisture on the models. you can see a week front moving in from the nw as well which will deflect this plume at some point to the NE. there will also be a zone of subsidence, sinking air between  the front and the leftovers of IDA.

NAM mon pm

nam tue am

nam tue pm

gfs mon pm

gfs tue am

gfs tue pm

the upper level set-up is a quite a bit different with both of these models but the trend has been further west and north with each run in terms of moisture.

my map on rain coverage for tuesday we could see a range from hvy tropical rains that could lead to some minor flooding to just scattered showers from the front. Again there will also be a zone of subsidence, dryer air as well in this set-up.

any changes in expected track will change this map.

 

wonderful weekend ahead

1. The region will be under high pressure all weekend which means a few passing clouds at best and with the high slowly moving southerly flow kicks in behind the high allowing for a warming trend with highs starting out friday on avg in the mid 60’s to then the low 70’s on avg by sunday, lows will be near 40 tomorrow night and in the upper 40’s for daybreak monday. This will be the best weekend of the fall weatherwise it’s also quite ironic that this was my first week forecasting for the stormtoppers here at WKU.

here is a link to that site http://www.wku.edu/~leeperd/which will soon be added to the links!

2. IDA update

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ida is now a tropical depression but should get back to being  a storm by early next week, the gulf is not all that warm for tropical intensification now so this will be only be a tropical storm when it reaches the northeast gulf.

my other concern is the disturbance in the western gulf here is the NAM view of this on monday am.  a front over the plains should move southeast by mid week to draw this moisture northward into the Ohio valley.

 

that is why meteorology is great

1. very light snow and sleet for some across the bluegrass yesterday morning ahead of a week system, the mix potential was commented on here Tuesday night. Several reports of this came out of the Lexington area even a tweet by coach Brooks. However, no one here in bowling green  at the climate center believed me. Why was that, the dreaded word WAA as highs reached the upper 60’s to the southwest. That word ( warm air advection) is the devil to snow lovers in the wintertime for those of you new to the site.  This was behind a warm front which warmed sw sections of the regions with sunny skies and a sw flow.For areas that did not have the warm front pass through  temps that had fallen overnight due to light winds and low dewpoints only slowly rose from the mid 30’s to near 40, coupled with a dry mid layer some sleet was able to mix with some of the very light rain showers in the morning. Highs ranged from the low 50’s for the Lexington metro northeast which was forecasted to the upper 60’s at my house where the warm front passed through. WOW what a day for the region and that is why meteorology is great, that are so many different aspects and things to consider when examining and predicting the atmosphere on any given day.

2. Our other news is tropical storm IDA which should move into the gulf early next week, also a weaker tropical system in the western gulf should move north slowly as well into early next week. Both of these systems may throw moisture are way next week. I’ll have my personal forecasts over the next few days on the tropical influence if any coming to KY. To think we thought we were off the hook tropics wise.